NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 12/15/22: Backing 3 Home Squads Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets +3.5 (-106)
Houston is a respectable 6-5 at home with a point differential of +0.6, but they've also got a spread-adjusted point differential of +7.8 with a 70.0% cover rate.
They're not a great team, but they're not nearly as bad as perception seems to be.
Accounting for the rest and location here, my model thinks the Rockets should be just 1.0-point underdogs rather than 3.5.
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline (-132)
Under 226.5 (-110)
We need some injury adjustments for this matchup.
Their offensive rating is a nice 116.3 in that split, and at home, Memphis is 12-2 overall with an opponent-adjusted point differential of +11.1. Their cover rate at home is 78.6%.
Again, the Bucks are without Holiday, and in games with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton but with Holiday off the floor, the Bucks' net rating is only +2.0. Their offensive rating is just 107.0.
Overall, though, Milwaukee is 7-4 on the road with a spread-adjusted point differential of -4.1. Those games have finished, on average, 105.0 to 105.7 for a total of 210.7.
My model has Memphis favored by 6.5 rather than 2.0, and numberFire's model rates the Grizzlies' spread as a three-star play and their moneyline (-132) as a five-star option.
My model also likes the under and expects just 222.0 total points.
New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz
Under 232.0 (-110)
Utah Jazz Moneyline (+100)
The New Orleans Pelicans' offense takes a huge step back without Brandon Ingram. Their offensive rating with him on the floor is 121.8; without him, it's down to 109.5, a drop of 12.3 points per 100 possessions.
In games without Ingram -- but controlling for having both Zion Williamson and C.J. McCollum active -- their offensive rating is 112.2, and their net rating is +6.1. That's been good for a 6-2 record.
At home, the Jazz hold a 10-5 record with a +3.1 spread-adjusted point differential. Their home games have averaged 235.8 total points (120.8 for and 115.0 against).
Utah's moneyline (+100) is a four-star play by numberFire's model, and their spread (+1.0) is a three-star option. My model thinks the Jazz should be favored by 3.5.
It also loves the under, which is my favorite play of the entire night. Accounting for everything, I'm projecting just 224.1 points here.