3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 12/9/22
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kevin Durant Over 27.5 Points (-118)
The total for the game is pretty healthy at 229.5 points, and the Brooklyn Nets are favored by 7.0 points. That gives the Nets an implied team total of 118.25 points, which is 6.95 points higher than Brooklyn's season average of 111.3 points.
Durant himself is averaging 29.8 points per game and is stepping into a matchup with an average defense over the past two weeks. Against teams in the middle 10 in defensive rating this season (eight games), Durant has averaged 31.0 points.
With his projected points output (again, 29.5), we can consider Durant to be 60.2% likely to go over the 27.5-point prop.
Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Assists (-118)
He has averaged 4.9 helpers per game, and with Tyrese Maxey off the floor, his assist-per-minute rate is 0.182, according to CourtIQ. That's a bump of +0.040 for him compared to when he's sharing the floor with Maxey and works out to a per-36 rate of 6.6 assists.
Embiid also has good underlying assist data. According to DARKO's data, Embiid should be averaging 0.139 assists per minute over the full season, which -- across 35.78 projected minutes -- is 4.97 assists.
The lowest rate of all of these is his actual projection of just 4.3. At that number, we should consider Embiid to be 59.8% likely to go over.
Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Threes (+104)
I guess I'm feeling good on a Friday with three over recommendations, but this one is a plus-money prop.
Devin Booker is projected for 2.8 made threes, which checks out.
Booker has an average line of 2.3 makes on 6.1 attempts per game and is now up against the New Orleans Pelicans, who allow the sixth-most three-point attempts per game of the season.
Booker already has played 12 games against teams in the bottom 10 in three-point attempts per game allowed (i.e. the teams allowing the most threes). In those matchups, he's averaging 2.8 makes on 6.8 attempts (so an uptick in volume against teams that generally allow more looks from beyond the arc).
Statistically speaking, the odds on the over here should be -115 rather than +104 if we use a projection of 2.8 made threes.