NBA
An Unpopular Opinion: Rajon Rondo Is Not Making the Dallas Mavericks Worse
Rajon Rondo's inefficient play has hurt the Mavericks as much as he's helped. But how drastic has the shift been?

At one point not too long ago, Basketball-Reference.com.

Rondo's average shot distance in Boston this year was 11.7 feet. In Dallas, it's also 11.7 feet. In fact, 87.1 percent of Rondo's shots as a Maverick are two-point attempts (compared to 84.0 percent in Boston this year). Rondo's three-point attempt percentage has actually declined from 16.0 percent to 12.9 percent after making the switch. The biggest difference of all, perhaps, is that Rondo went from shooting 3.1 percent of his three-point attempts from the corner in Boston this year to 51.2 percent in Dallas. He's converting 38.1 percent of his corner threes with the Mavericks.

Efficiency Woes

At numberFire, we have a metric called Real Plus-Minus of -1.58 ranks just 43rd among 80 point guards, and his Offensive Real Plus-Minus of -2.59 ranks 73rd.

It's no surprise, then, that the Mavs are struggling with Rondo. Right...?

Not Entirely to Blame?

With Rondo off the floor this year (in 2,311 minutes), the Mavericks have an Offensive Rating of 111.7. With him on the floor (in 887 minutes), their Offensive Rating is just 103.0.

But since his first game on December 20th, the Mavericks are posting a 107.2 Offensive Rating without him, according to NBAwowy.com, so the gap is narrower if we exclude the pre-Rondo numbers. The Mavs actually have a higher Effective Field Goal percentage (50.0) with Rondo than without him (49.3) and a very similar points per shot with him (1.059) than without him (1.054).

Rondo is also generating 5.4 points per 48 minutes on drives with the Mavericks, up from 4.3 with the Celtics this year. Also, with Rondo on the floor, the Mavericks are shooting 37.5 percent from three. With him off the floor since the trade, they're just 32.8 percent from beyond the arc.

There are also some people who assume that Rondo's inability to shoot has had a negative impact on other key pieces of the offense and that defenses can sag off of Rondo and hug the team's best offensive players. That doesn't really seem to be true. Here are the on-off splits since December 20th for Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons, and Dirk Nowitzki.

NameRondoPossFGAeFGTSFG%3P%USGPPPPPS
Monta EllisOff124932445.448.841.730.428.40.980.98
Monta EllisOn134633047.750.143.932.926.41.021.00
 
Chandler ParsonsOff95319649.752.742.936.521.91.121.05
Chandler ParsonsOn99615757.359.149.038.817.91.121.18
 
Dirk NowitzkiOff82718845.250.741.525.924.01.101.01
Dirk NowitzkiOn129031150.555.445.745.525.01.191.11

The numbers just don't really seem to fit what feels like is going on in Dallas. Effective Field Goal percentages, True Shooting percentages, field goal percentages, three-point percentages, points per possession, and points per shot are up universally among the Mavs' trio while playing with Rondo.

The Verdict

I'm not saying that Rondo has had a tangible, positive impact on the Mavericks -- that's not it at all. In the 39 games since Rondo joined the team, the Mavericks are just 22-17, the ninth-highest win percentage in the Western Conference alone.

And, yes, the team's Offensive Rating is just 102.9 since the deal. Also, Dallas has a Defensive Rating of 101.2 and a Net Rating of 1.7 since December 20th. All of these are down significantly from their marks before the trade: 113.6 Offensive Rating, 105.1 Defensive Rating, and 8.5 Net Rating.

But simply looking at Rondo's on-court play doesn't really seem to fit the narrative that things aren't working out. Again, I'm not saying that Rondo is helping the Mavericks be better, but the Mavericks are slowing down even without Rondo on the court. If you want to buy into the idea that he's put a funk on the team's play on the floor, go ahead, but that still doesn't explain why Monta, Dirk, and Parsons are playing better with Rondo than without him.

Sure, it's easy to point the finger at Rondo for his confrontation with coach Rick Carlisle, and I don't know what Rondo is like off the court -- or really even on it -- as a teammate. Regardless, the Mavericks were playing offense at a historically unprecedented level earlier this season. Maybe regression is just setting in naturally, and maybe it's not all Rondo's fault.

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