FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 12/5/22
Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
The top story on Monday's injury report is a potential -- if not confirmed -- addition.
Unfortunately, while Tyrese Haliburton (groin) played through his injury on Friday, he missed Sunday's game and will also miss Monday's against Golden State. His backup T.J. McConnell (illness) is also questionable, and the hosting Warriors have Andrew Wiggins (groin) and Jordan Poole (ankle) listed the same.
Jimmy Butler (knee) is questionable tonight for Miami, and Gabe Vincent (knee) and Dewayne Dedmon (foot) also share that tag for the Heat. They're in Memphis, where Steven Adams (hip) is likely closer to doubtful after missing yesterday's contest.
Brook Lopez (rest) might sit tonight for the Bucks in Orlando. For the Magic, Gary Harris (hamstring) has joined Wendell Carter Jr., Chuma Okeke, and Jalen Suggs on the bench. Mohamed Bamba (back) is questionable.
Luka Doncic ($11,900) is on some kind of a hot stretch entering this matchup with Phoenix we know he cares about.
Doncic has posted a higher usage rate (38.5%) and 61.5 FanDuel points per 36 minutes across his past three games, and while The 220.0-point isn't stellar, it's also a good bit higher than we usually see for the Mavs (28th in pace), so I'm pretty invested in the premier fantasy basketball star at present.
I don't think it's any coincidence Dejounte Murray ($9,000) has exploded back since the injuries to John Collins and De'Andre Hunter. All in all, Murray's posted at least 27 real-life points and 43 FanDuel points in two games without them. He was a 99th-percentile rebounder for a guard last year, which means he could also grab more than his average per game in this stretch (3.0) moving forward.
Terry Rozier ($7,100) has a five-digit salary role at this mark. He's taken 21 shots in each of his past two, but only 18 total (42.9%) have fallen. He's never been supremely efficient but will be a tournament winner on a hot night from the field before too long.
It's not like Bennedict Mathurin ($5,500) will be a secret without Haliburton (and potentially T.J. McConnell again), but he's such an outstanding process play. He's taken at least 13 shots in three of his past four games, now locked into a 30-plus minute role. The whopper isn't too far off.
In no surprise given the only major injury on the slate, Mathurin, McConnell, and teammates Aaron Nesmith ($4,500) and Andrew Nembhard ($4,300) head our projections at guard today. They're joined by Jalen Green ($6,400), Malcolm Brogdon ($5,100), and Markelle Fultz ($4,800).
The early returns on Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800) with both of his co-stars weren't as bad as I expected.
On Friday, Giannis' usage rate (38.5%) held strong, and he delivered 56.3 FanDuel points per minute. That's a little less than you'd hope for at this salary, and while I prefer Doncic, I don't think you cross him off if we get bombarded with value this afternoon. Never say never in NBA DFS, man.
However, the wing spot is one largely for value options today. Only one wing, Andrew Wiggins ($6,500), grades out with a value score above 5.00 above $6,000, and Wiggins might not even play due to a groin issue.
Wiggins' teammate Klay Thompson ($5,900) has kicked his early-season shooting slump with at least 28 FanDuel points in six of his past eight games. Especially if more shots are open without Wiggins or Poole, he's got a salary that can pay off in a three-quarter blowout.
Buddy Hield ($5,900) posted 41.6 FanDuel points per 36 in his first game without Haliburton on Sunday, so he's right there with Mathurin as a way to attack Indiana on the opposite side of Thompson.
Thompson and Hield headline a pretty loaded slew of options around small forward today, including Dillon Brooks ($5,900), Marcus Morris ($4,900), John Konchar ($4,900), AJ Griffin ($4,400), and Jalen Johnson ($4,000).
Now that he's back healthy, Pascal Siakam ($10,000) appeared to re-ignite the MVPascal campaign he was working on earlier this season.
Including this up-to-speed stretch, Siakam is at 50.1 FanDuel points per 36 minutes from the season. He's actually the only player above $10,000 on this slate with a sub-30.0% usage rate, as well. Usage is phenomenal for scorers, but in Siakam's case, he posted 58.6 FanDuel points Saturday on just 15 shots. His floor is great on a tough slate for bigs.
In terms of just raw production, Myles Turner ($7,500) was the most sizable recipient of Haliburton's absence on Sunday. He posted highs amongst all starters in usage rate (32.5%) and FanDuel points per 36 minutes (43.6). However, he's also the highest-salaried Pacer, which could be problematic if the lowly squad ends up failing to cover an 11.0-point spread.
Due to Atlanta's injuries, Clint Capela ($6,200) appears back in a full-time role. He's played at least 29 minutes in three straight. His matchup with OKC is great, too. The Thunder allow the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing centers.
In a revenge spot with his playmaker Harden returning, perhaps P.J. Tucker ($3,700) is more aggressive at a near-minimum salary. I was surprised to see the normally-inactive forward so high up in numberFire's projections. He's joined near the top by Draymond Green ($6,200), Jabari Smith ($5,200), Jalen McDaniels ($4,700), and Santi Aldama ($4,600).