NBA Betting Guide for Monday 12/5/22: Can the Hawks Convert at Home Against a Trending Thunder Team?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic

Under 227.0 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks -9.5 (-110)

The Orlando Magic are just 5-19 on the season but 4-8 at home, suggesting that they have a bit of life when playing at the Amway Center.

The Bucks are 16-6 -- but just 5-3 on the road, so it stands to reason that the Magic should hang if we just trust the home/road results. However, there's a bit more to it than just that for tonight's matchup.

For Orlando, yes, their record is better at home. However, their point differential in home matchups is -4.3. Adjusting for opponents faced, that differential is a smidge worse at -4.7.

The Bucks have Khris Middleton back and probable to play in this game. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday sat out for a road game against the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday but are not on the injury report for tonight's tilt.

This team should be ready to rock.

Accounting for all the injury news (Orlando is listing Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., and Gary Harris as out with Mohamed Bamba as questionable), my model sees this game scoring just 221.5 points with the Bucks able to cover the 9.5-point spread pretty readily.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks Moneyline (-220)
Under 235.0 (-110)

The primary injuries here are both on the Hawks' side with John Collins and De'Andre Hunter out.

The team's relevant splits without them but with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are pretty tepid: a -0.7 net rating with roughly average offensive and defensive ratings.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are pretty healthy overall but clock in with a relevant net rating of -3.9.

Atlanta is 8-4 at home with a better opponent-adjusted point differential (+2.0) than a raw point differential (+1.2). The Thunder are 4-8 on the road with a worse adjusted point differential (-4.8) than a raw point differential (-3.6).

My model gives the Hawks a 75.0% win probability; numberFire's model puts those win odds a bit higher at 79.8%.

Atlanta also usually has an inflated home total, as well. They score 5.7 fewer points in home games than their implied total suggests they will.

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks

Over 221.0 (-110)
Phoenix Suns +3.0 (-110)

Although Chris Paul remains sidelined, as long as the Suns have Devin Booker, things seem like they'll be all right.

Their offensive rating with Booker and Deandre Ayton active but without Paul is 120.2, and their net rating is +9.0.

The Dallas Mavericks list Christian Wood as questionable for tonight's game. With Luka Doncic active but Wood off the floor, the Mavericks' net rating is a solid +2.1 -- yet that's not near the Suns' success.

Now, Dallas is 9-3 at home, and Phoenix is just 4-5 on the road, yet we're getting points with the Suns to cover.

And, despite their road record, the Suns actually have a positive point differential on the road (+4.3). They're a bottom-three team in road luck. Dallas is top-six in home luck.

My preferred play here is the over. Yes, the Mavericks are slow, but these are two average defenses and two plus offenses. My model thinks the total should be 228.0.