3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 12/2/22
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds (-115)
Tatum's expected to get 36.1 minutes of action, so the volume should be there.
Miami ranks around the NBA average in rebounds per game allowed but is just 23rd in rebounding rate. In two matchups with the Heat this year, Tatum has averaged 8.0 rebounds (5 back on October 21st but then 11 in the Boston Celtics' most recent game).
With Tatum a projection of 8.1 rebounds, we should consider him around 55.3% likely to go over, meaning over odds around -125.
LeBron James Over 5.5 Assists (-110)
That leaves behind an implied team total of 111.0 for the Lakers, who have averaged 113.1 points per game on the year.
As for LeBron James, he has averaged 6.3 assists per game but now is up against the team allowing the fewest assists per game (largely due to a top-three scoring defense).
James, though, in four matchups against other teams in the top 10 in fewest assists per game allowed has averaged 5.8 dimes, including 0.168 per minute. That would get him to 6.0 across his projected minutes workload.
Underlying data via DARKO suggests James should be averaging 0.179 assists per minute, leading to an expected projection of 6.3 assists at his anticipated minutes.
Ja Morant Under 28.5 Points (-110)
Ja Morant has a projection of just 26.0 points via numberFire's model in this matchup, so obviously we're going with the under recommendation.
In games against top-10 defenses, Morant, well, he has just two of them (both against the New Orleans Pelicans). That's pretty wild this deep into the season.
Removing games against bottom-10 defenses, Morant has averaged only 25.3 points over 32.1 minutes per game.