3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 11/28/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Cameron Payne Under 1.5 Made Threes (+124)
Cameron Payne is due for some regression with his three-point shooting.
Payne -- who has not made multiple treys in any of his three previous games -- is hitting 39.0% from three this season. His career average is 36.5%, and DARKO has him as an expected 35.6% shooter from deep.
On top of that, he'll likely start taking fewer threes, too. His three-point attempt rate of 40.4% is well above last year's 35.9% clip, and DARKO projects Payne to have a three-point attempt rate of 38.9%.
While our model projects Payne to make 2.0 threes on 5.7 tries, the pricing on this prop pushes me toward the under. The over is listed at -158. If it was priced more evenly, I'd stay away, but with the under at +124, I'm intrigued.
Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 Made Threes (-132)
Irving has made at least three trifectas in three straight games. He's taken at least eight three-point attempts in seven of his past nine games.
Orlando is unlikely to provide much resistance in this department. The Magic are giving up a 42.6% three-point attempt rate, the second-highest. They've permitted 9.4 three-point tries per game to point guards, the fifth-most, with the position making 3.3 of those attempts per night.
Kelly Olynyk Over 5.5 Rebounds (-120)
Kelly Olynyk has pulled down six-plus rebounds in five of his last eight games, and he is also due for an uptick in his rebound totals.
He's averaging just 8.3 rebounds per 100 possessions this season. He's averaged 11.2 rebounds per 100 possessions for his career and has recorded at least 10.1 boards per 100 possessions in each of the last six years. DARKO has him projected for 9.9 rebounds per 100 possessions this campaign.
Olynyk is up against the Chicago Bulls, a team that ranks in the middle of the pack in rebound rate. Chicago has surrendered the eighth-most rebounds per night to power forwards (10.8).
Our model forecasts Olynyk to total 6.7 rebounds on Monday.