NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 11/23/22: Can the Bucks Notch Another Dominant Home Performance?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers +2.0 (-110)
Under 236.0 (-110)
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a healthy rotation for tonight's matchup against the Pacers on the road, but the early-season return on the revamped lineup remains a question mark.
Minnesota is 9-8 on the season and 4-3 on the road, but despite the winning record, I have their opponent-adjusted point differential on the road at only +0.7. They're a -1.6 in spread-adjusted point differential on the road with a 42.9% cover rate.
Their relevant net rating with D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert playing is actually just -0.2.
The Pacers are mostly healthy, as well, and they sport a 6-3 home record (and are 10-6 overall). Adjusting for opponents, their home point differential is +4.7, and they're +3.9, on average, against the spread at home.
I have the Pacers favored here, and numberFire's model likes the Pacers to cover as well (a one-unit suggestion).
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Under 223.0 (-110)
Both sides here are pretty healthy, as well, and that means a favored situation for the home side. Milwaukee sports a nearly unblemished home record (9-1) and is 12-4 overall.
Milwaukee, at home, boasts a +9.3 adjusted point differential and has outperformed the spread by +2.6, on average.
The 7-10 Chicago Bulls haven't traveled particularly well this season (2-5 on the road), though -- in fairness -- their adjusted point differential in those games is a respectable -1.5 for such a poor record.
Accounting for health in this matchup, my model thinks the spread should be 9.5, not 6.5. numberFire projects a 118.8-110.0 win for the Bucks. They're considered 57.4% likely to cover.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Over 230.5 (-110)
The Denver Nuggets had Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon back for their most recent game against the Detroit Pistons, and they're -- unsurprisingly -- a very different team with Jokic and Murray on the floor than they are without those two.
The splits I'm using for this game feature a 118.7 offensive rating and a 115.5 defensive rating for Denver -- both well above the NBA average (112.5). That's good for overs.
The Oklahoma City Thunder's relevant splits for tonight are a 115.1 offensive rating and a 120.7 defensive rating.
You can probably see why the over makes sense.
If you like trend data, you can also rest assured that the Thunder have outperformed their own implied team total in 15 of 17 games this season.
