NBA Betting Guide for Monday 11/21/22: Starting the Week With 3 Unders
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls +6.0 (-110)
Under 229.0 (-110)
The Boston Celtics' offense is pretty elite this season, and they pace the NBA with a 120.2 offensive rating, via CleaningTheGlass. That's 7.5 points better than the NBA average and 1.2 points better than any other team. That's a pretty outlier-ish rate, however, and not many stick above 117.0 for the full season.
Even before scaling that back, my model -- along with numberFire's -- likes the Bulls to cover the 6.0-point spread at home.
Chicago has a relevant offensive rating of 112.4 and boasts a nice 110.5 defensive rating, as well. They're at home, and each team has two days of rest.
My numbers think the spread should be only 1.5 points, and numberFire's has it at 2.74, so taking the points with the home team is the preference in this one.
numberFire's model also really likes the under; mine is a bit more neutral unless I bump down the expected offensive rating for the Celtics due to the fact that it's just so darn high.
Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks -9.5 (-110)
Under 214.0 (-110)
They have allowed an expected effective field goal percentage of 54.0% but have actually yielded a rate of only 51.2% in that category in games without Dame.
For the Bucks, accounting for their health, they have a pretty pristine +7.6 non-garbage-time net rating and have a rest advantage (2 days to 1) plus a home-court advantage here.
numberFire's model likes a lean on the Bucks to cover (-9.5). My model thinks the spread should be 11.5.
We also get two better-than-average defenses and two average-or-worse offenses in this matchup, explaining the low total. It doesn't seem low enough, however.
Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves
Under 220.0 (-110)
That's bad news bears for their offense: they have an offensive rating of just 97.7 without those two on the floor on relevant possessions. While you may assume the defense is also terrible without Butler leading the way, they're at a 106.3 defensive rating, around 95% of the NBA average.
The Timberwolves are basically league-average in both offensive and defensive ratings when accounting for their available rotation, so the path to putting up points for the Heat seems difficult because of their offense, and it's no guarantee that Miami will yield many points, even on a back-to-back.