FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 11/18/22
Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
|New York||Golden State||234.5||113.5||121.0||8||1|
In more positive news, LeBron James (adductor) has been upgraded to questionable tonight for the Lakers. They're facing a Pistons team that remains without Cade Cunningham (shin) and Isaiah Stewart (toe).
The Magic have ruled out Paolo Banchero (ankle) already, but Wendell Carter Jr. (foot) is probable to return Friday. They're in Chicago, and the Bulls will likely be down Patrick Williams (ankle) after he left Wednesday's tilt early.
An injury-riddled Hornets season got worse on Wednesday when LaMelo Ball reaggravated his ankle injury. He's out Friday, and Gordon Hayward (shoulder) and Dennis Smith (ankle) are both expected to join him. Jarrett Allen (illness) is questionable for the opposing Cavaliers.
The Heat will be without Tyler Herro (ankle), and Jimmy Butler (knee) has been ruled out, as well. They've also got Bam Adebayo (knee) and Caleb Martin (knee) listed as questionable. Adebayo's backup Dewayne Dedmon (foot) played through an injury last game but didn't start. He's questionable again, too. Yikes.
Luka Doncic ($12,000) rested on Wednesday, and this salary is much more palatable for him.
He's been over 55 FanDuel points in all but two games this year, so we can lump him in knowing the Nuggets will likely be all over the place defensively with so many key injuries.
Behind him, you can make an argument for either Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800) or Stephen Curry ($10,500), for certain. After spending last year in a tricky usage tree, Golden State is all Steph this season. He's got a 31.0% usage rate, using it to score 40-plus real-life points in three of his past five. The Dubs also haven't shown the ability to blow many squads out.
As for SGA, I'd rather just turn to backcourt mate Josh Giddey ($6,600) today. Gilgeous-Alexander's 57.9% shooting this month is something I'm uncomfortable backing as the salary rises.
Terry Rozier ($7,700) isn't a massive steal at his salary, but his 31.2% usage rate without his three injured teammates still stands out relative to peers in that range.
The 236.5-point total in Indiana should be a shootout, so Tyrese Haliburton ($8,900) and Jalen Green ($6,500) are both projecting moderately well as the leading usage guys inside of it. Green's projection should rise if KPJ is ruled out due to injury.
Rozier's teammate Theo Maledon ($4,400) is popping in our projections since he's likely in a full-time role with Ball and Smith out. Others joining him near the top include Denver's Nah'Shon Hyland ($5,800), Mike Conley ($5,600), Eric Gordon ($4,400), and Patrick Beverley ($4,200).
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500) missed two games due to injury, so it's a bit concerning he's been so ineffective since returning. He posted just 16 points on Wednesday. Still, Antetokoumpo's 61.1 FanDuel points per 36 minutes this season -- with or without Holiday -- are rating out incredibly well for his salary.
After breaking 20 real-life points in four of six games before Zion's injury, Brandon Ingram ($8,000) has failed to do since. Of course! He's shot just 36.7% from the field in this time, but a 28.5% usage rate with Zion off the floor provides plenty of hope.
Kelly Oubre ($6,800) has a 27.5% usage rate with Charlotte's injured trio off the floor this season, and maybe even more importantly, he's locked into a full role averaging 1.51 blocks plus steals per 36 minutes. He's capable of nuking a slate.
Michael Porter Jr. ($6,200) should be immensely popular as the surviving member of Denver's star trio, but he showed immense difficulty -- even getting benched -- Wednesday as a catch-and-shoot guy missing Jokic, and no Murray could only exasperate that issue. Perhaps Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,300), Bruce Brown Jr. ($5,100), and Jeff Green ($3,500) are better ways to target the team.
Like Denver, the Heat deserve some special attention with Butler -- and likely Adebayo -- out. Kyle Lowry ($6,700) and Gabe Vincent ($4,800) should lead the scoring hierarchy as guards, but Max Strus ($5,600), Caleb Martin ($5,100), Nikola Jovic ($4,000), and Duncan Robinson ($3,700) should all get turns as wings. For what it's worth, I can't see this motley crew competing with a healthy Wizards squad.
In numberFire's projections, Dillon Brooks ($5,000) is showing massive value due to the ongoing absence of Desmond Bane. He's followed by Klay Thompson ($5,500), Torrey Craig ($4,700), Cam Reddish ($4,100), and Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,000) as a gaggle of wings showing per-dollar value in the model.
The last time we saw Joel Embiid ($11,300), he broke the all-time site record for FanDuel points in a game (103.0). I'd be a psycho to not even consider him in a friendly matchup with Milwaukee. The high-paced Bucks are allowing the ninth-most rebounds per game to opposing centers.
Behind Embiid, it's a bit tricky. Anthony Davis ($11,000) is a tough sell with LeBron potentially back. Plus, he's only posted north of 42 FanDuel points twice in his past six games. Similarly, Kristaps Porzingis ($8,600) and Julius Randle ($8,000) exploded well beyond their season median on Wednesday and got salary bumps for it.
It's no guarantee Myles Turner ($7,800) gets a full workload tonight. Rick Carlisle has been quick to pull him amidst struggles. Still, averaging 50.2 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in this high-paced environment, Turner could detonate the slate if allowed to. On the other side, Alperen Sengun ($6,900) is projecting well for Houston.
I can't believe Evan Mobley ($7,100) didn't get a larger bump should Jarrett Allen ($6,900) sit again tonight with his illness. I'll pivot to Allen if he plays, but whichever starts at center should crush it. The Hornets are a bottom-10 squad in paint points allowed and second-chance points allowed.
Bol Bol ($5,300) finally turned his potential in a full-time role into reality on Wednesday with 49.9 FanDuel points. Even with Wendell Carter Jr. ($7,000) returning, Bol tops our projections amongst big men tonight, followed by Draymond Green ($5,700), Al Horford ($5,500), Kelly Olynyk ($5,300), and Denver bigs DeAndre Jordan ($4,000) and Zeke Nnaji ($3,700).