3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 11/17/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
De'Aaron Fox Over 25.5 Points (-106)
The Spurs rank 30th in points per game allowed (119.5) and are letting up around 6.2 points above the league's median output. As far as non-garbage-time defensive rating goes, the Spurs are 29th (117.5 with the average being 112.7).
That's a boost to Fox's expected points output.
Fox has a projection of 26.7 points by numberFire's model, and that makes him around 56.7% likely to go over, meaning the over odds should be roughly -130.
Keldon Johnson Over 5.5 Rebounds (+102)
With a rebounding projection of 6.1 for Keldon Johnson, it's not a surprise that I'm looking at the over here at 5.5. That's especially true at plus-money odds (+102).
Johnson is securing 0.150 rebounds per minute this season; according to his underlying data via DARKO, Johnson's per-minute rebounding number should actually be 0.161.
At the projected rate of 6.1 rebounds (numberFire's expectation), we can consider Johnson to be 55.2% likely to go over, implying odds on the over should be around -123 rather than plus money.
The prop itself is efficient at 5.5, but the odds seem to be a bit off here.
Josh Hart Over 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108)
I guess I'm feeling good to go with three overs, but here we are. Or, that's where the value seems to be, at least.
Josh Hart is being projected for 9.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists tonight by numberFire: a total of 21.9 points, rebounds, and assists.
Hart is drastically underperforming his scoring potential by shooting just 30.4% from deep this season. DARKO's data thinks he should be at 33.5%. His points-per-minute rate (0.239) should be 0.317 if we let the data do the talking.
It's worth noting that he's projected for 9.7 points and that his points prop (9.5) has +102 odds on the over, as well.