3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 11/15/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Paul George Over 4.5 Assists (-102)
The main path to an under for Paul George's assists is just the general pace of the Los Angeles Clippers' game against the Dallas Mavericks, who are the NBA's slowest team. It's a low total as a result.
numberFire's model, though, is projecting George for 5.3 assists across 35.26 minutes (0.150 per minute). The underlying data from DARKO thinks that George should hold an assist-per-minute rate of 0.143.
At that minutes projection, George would go for 5.0 assists still.
Nicolas Claxton Under 9.5 Rebounds (-108)
numberFire's model projects Claxton for just 8.2 rebounds tonight, down from his season average of 9.1 per game.
Part of it, for me, is that Claxton is overperforming on the glass.
He has averaged 0.330 rebounds per minute; however, the underlying data from DARKO implies he should be sitting at just 0.301 per minute.
Across his 27.86 projected minutes, that's a gap of 9.2 and 8.4 Either way, both are below the prop, and if he performs at expectation, then expectations are even lower.
Damian Lillard Over 6.5 Assists (+102)
Let's run through a similar exercise with Damian Lillard's assist total as we did with George's.
Lillard is projected for 6.9 assists in 35.38 minutes. His DARKO rate for assists per minute is a 0.186, totaling 6.6 assists.
But the caveat here is that the San Antonio Spurs allow a league-high 119.7 points and 28.1 assists per game.
Lillard has averaged just 6.0 assists per game while seeing worse-than-expected assist-per-minute numbers (0.170).
He's averaging 7.6 adjusted assists per game, too, so we should generally see his assist conversion numbers tick up soon.