FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 11/11/22
Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, basketball daily fantasy would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?
Well, as a result, NBA daily fantasy is extremely reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
On an eight-game slate, we have plenty of options at all the positions, but among the stud guards, the one that stands out above the rest is Ja Morant ($9,700). Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies are in the game of the night against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who rank 12th in non-garbage-time defensive rating. That's not enough to worry. Morant has played 33, 35, and 39 minutes over the past three games with 41.8, 58.1, and 45.5 FanDuel points in them. The reasonable salary leaves room for him to dominate value in a game this good.
De'Aaron Fox ($8,000) gets the Los Angeles Lakers as road favorites in a game with a 230.0-point total. The Lakers are 18th in defensive rating and 1st in pace, so even for the Sacramento Kings (11th in pace), it's an uptempo matchup. Fox has had a high floor in his healthy games, and NBAStuffer gives the guard a 10.7 versatility index rating (NBA average is 5.0). That's pretty elite for a guard and gives him multiple paths to production.
On the lower-end, we have value options at guard.
Jevon Carter ($5,100) is set to take advantage again of the Milwaukee Bucks' injuries. They list Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Pat Connaughton, and others as out. In his last game, Carter played 44.8 minutes against the Oklahoma City Thunder and took 27 shots, scoring 36 points. He also pitched in 12 assists, 4 rebounds, and a steal for 56.8 FanDuel points.
Fox's teammate, Malik Monk ($4,700) also rates out well. Monk is projected for 27.9 minutes tonight for a line of 13.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.2 combined steals and blocks. Monk has played between 27.4 and 30.6 minutes in each of the past three games and has double-digit shot upside. Injected into a great game, we can take those savings for a high-floor player with a path to a ceiling based on scoring potential.
There's plenty of value among forward-eligible players, but there's also some opportunity cost at the top with Jayson Tatum ($10,100). Tatum, across a thousand slate simulations, rates out as 34.7% likely to be the top-scoring forward-eligible option. Nobody else is above 14.3% (teammate Jaylen Brown [$8,200]). Spending up to roster the Boston Celtics' studs could go a long way.
Otherwise, the best forward options are generally below $6,000.
MarJon Beauchamp ($4,000) takes the top value spot for me at the position. He played 29.9 minutes last game with the Bucks' injuries, and he took 13 shots (8 were threes), pulled in 8 rebounds, and swiped 2 steals. Beauchamp is projected for 25.1 minutes tonight and 5.69 FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary. Grayson Allen ($5,000) also projects well for the Bucks.
Dillon Brooks ($5,300) and Desmond Bane ($8,100) are available for us in the game of the night. Brooks has had 12-plus shot attempts in eight of the past nine games, and Bane ranks 19th in the NBA in points per game (24.7) and 24th in field goal attempts per game (17.9).
I guess I buried the lede a bit, but Bobby Portis ($5,800) is the best process-based play of the night. Portis played 34.3 minutes last game and put up 13 points and 9 rebounds for 27.8 FanDuel points. There's just such a high floor for Portis, who has rebounding totals of 9, 10, 21, 8, 9, 12, 10, 12, 11, 8, and 10, and now the role is even more secure. If he adds 20-plus points, then the recipe is there for a dominant night. Brook Lopez ($6,700) is also a core play for the Bucks.
Deandre Ayton ($6,500) sets up well in the mid-range tonight against the Orlando Magic, who are actually fourth in rebounding rate this season. But Ayton is projected for a minutes bump (30.2) from his full-season average (26.6), and he's also slated for 33.7 FanDuel points (5.19 per $1,000 in salary).
I don't want to ignore Anthony Davis ($10,200), who is going to be freed up without LeBron. Davis, with LeBron off the floor this season, has a 30.7% usage rate and averages 1.50 FanDuel points per minute, according to RotoGrinders. Those are bumps of 4.8 points and 0.13 points, respectively. Davis has a 28.5% chance to be the best big of the night in my slate simulations.
It's similar to the Tatum/Brown situation in which Davis (28.5%) and Nikola Jokic ($10,600; 26.2%) have mostly untouchable odds to be the top scorer at the position, so just be sure that you're using value available to access the elite ceilings of the studs on the slate.