FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 11/10/22
Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, basketball daily fantasy would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?
Well, as a result, NBA daily fantasy is extremely reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
Between two loaded days and Tuesday's off day, this is our first small slate of the week. We've got plenty of familiar faces on the injury report.
Bradley Beal (COVID-19 protocols) remains out, and backup Delon Wright (hamstring) won't suit up for Washington, either. They're hosting Dallas, and Christian Wood (knee) will sit just as he did yesterday.
LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Gordon Hayward (shoulder) remain out for the Hornets on Thursday. We're watching Tyler Herro (ankle) and Caleb Martin (quad) in that one, who are questionable for the hosting Miami Heat.
Finally, Jusuf Nurkic (adductor) and Jerami Grant (ankle) were surprise scratches from a probable status last night for Portland. They're worth watching, and the opposing Pelicans may be without Larry Nance Jr. (knee) once more.
Salary remains supreme in NBA daily fantasy. I think Luka Doncic ($12,500) can be off the table tonight.
Doncic has yet to post below 53 FanDuel points this year, so he's earned this record-setting salary. However, he's also only eclipsed 60 FanDuel points in 5 of his 10 games. It's a legitimate question he can get to the required 62.5 FanDuel points for a 5.00 value score here, and Wood's absence seemed to badly hurt the offense last night in Orlando.
If Trae Young ($9,700) and Dejounte Murray ($10,800) are playing together, both are tough sells. Murray's salary is even rich at his FanDuel-point-per-minute rate without Young (1.36), but Trae at least has broken 50 FanDuel points in three of his past six. I'd prefer him if he's good to go.
Terry Rozier ($8,000) is my favorite way to spend salary at guard on this slate. Rozier has woefully underperformed his 29.4% usage rate since returning from injury thanks to 35.8% shooting. Even in a tough matchup with Miami, that monstrous scoring effort looms.
It seems Tyrese Maxey ($7,800) is salaried at his ceiling (since he doesn't contribute regularly in a ton of categories besides scoring), so De'Anthony Melton ($5,600), who tops our projections today at guard, seems like the better access to Philadelphia's backcourt.
Forward is much better.
Jimmy Butler ($9,000), Brandon Ingram ($8,200), and Tobias Harris ($8,000) are all matching up with top-10 teams in terms of FanDuel points allowed to small forwards per game. If Herro sits, Butler has posted 1.50 FanDuel points per minute without him occupying usage on the floor. He's the clear top guy over the other two, who can always be tertiary options in their offense.
Kelly Oubre ($5,700) has had a 28.2% usage rate since Rozier's return. They're a clear 1-2 punch for Charlotte, and I'm guessing he'll be one of today's most popular value plugs.
With Grant scratched, Justise Winslow ($5,400) drew the start. He only got 26 minutes, though, and his 8.4 FanDuel points were a disaster. He posted 1.02 FanDuel points per minute with the Blazers last year, so his path to being a value guy is there. It's just not clear.
In terms of value, De'Andre Hunter ($4,800) has blown past 23 FanDuel points in each of his last three games with full minutes. He's a solid, but unspectacular, option. Others grading well in our projections include Kyle Kuzma ($6,500), Will Barton ($4,400), and the cardio king himself, Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,300).
I have zero issues proclaiming Joel Embiid ($10,500) the top star of the day.
He returned to 36 monstrous minutes on Monday, tallying 52.5 FanDuel points. That should be the norm given his gaudy 35.8% usage rate with Harden off the floor this season.
This is a good positional group today with both Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000) and Bam Adebayo ($7,700) also rating out with value scores north of 5.00 in our model. Those two will benefit from Beal and -- likely -- Herro out to snag a few more shots.
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,700) should wildly popular if Larry Nance is out, but I'm intrigued by pivoting to Zion Williamson ($8,800) off JV. Not only does Williamson pair with Embiid, but he shouldn't be popular off last night's complete dud. If Nurkic sits for Portland, Valanciunus could be benched often for Zion as the small-ball five next to Trey Murphy III ($5,200).
Maxi Kleber ($3,700) played 33 minutes off the bench last night for Dallas in Christian Wood's place. Dwight Powell ($3,600) drew the start but played just 19 minutes. That's the same uninspiring breakdown we saw all of last season for the Mavs.