3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 11/9/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Ja Morant Under 7.5 Assists (+102)
Ja Morant is averaging 7.1 assists per game on the season over 32.1 minutes per night -- 0.22 per minute.
numberFire's model projects him for 34.7 minutes but just 6.8 assists against the San Antonio Spurs. At that projected minutes total and his per-minute assist rate, he should be projected for around 7.6 assists.
Based on that 7.6 number, we can consider Morant a fair value at +102 for the under. Given the baseline projection, though, of 6.8, we can be very interested in the plus-money and expect him to fall short at around a 60.0% clip.
Kevin Durant Over 2.5 Made Threes (+148)
That's a good sign for Kevin Durant's three-point number at such good odds.
Durant is projected for only 2.3 made threes, but at that baseline, we should anticipate him to get to 3.0 or more with anticipated odds of +135.
Nikola Jokic Under 8.5 Assists (+108)
This is another stud with a lower assists projection (7.9) than the prop implies, yet as we saw with the Morant prop, the plus-money is on the under.
Nikola Jokic is averaging 9.3 assists per game and 0.29 per minute. However, he has had a lot of help from his teammates. They've converted on 58.5% of his potential assists (NBA average is 54.4%). Part of that stem from being on a good team, but that's a pretty high rate.
The underlying data at DARKO suggests his assist-per-minute rate should be 0.23 -- not the 0.29 it has been this season.
Over Jokic's 32.8 projected minutes, that's the difference between 9.5 assists and 7.5 assists.