3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 11/7/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 9.5 Rebounds (-108)
The New York Knicks will be sans Mitchell Robinson tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and that pushes Isaiah Hartenstein into a bigger role.
With Robinson off the floor this season, Hartenstein is averaging 12.0 rebounds per 36 minutes. Without Robinson on Saturday, Hartenstein logged 38 minutes and snared 14 boards. Heck, he had 14 rebounds in 20 minutes in the game before that one, a game in which Robinson exited early.
We project Hartenstein for 35.0 minutes and 10.5 rebounds.
Harrison Barnes Over 1.5 Made Threes (+126)
We've been down this road before with Harrison Barnes. He's made multiple threes in only one game this year, but we hit on that game. Most everything I wrote up as a reason to back Barnes that night still holds true.
Barnes is in a shooting funk, but he is due for some positive regression. He's made just 18.5% from deep in 2022-23. He's a 37.7% three-point shooter for his career, and he's made at least 38.1% of his three in five consecutive seasons. DARKO has him as an expected 38.0% three-point shooter this year. In short, he's going to start making more treys.
The matchup tonight should help, too. He's facing the Golden State Warriors, a team that sits 3rd-worst in defensive rating and one that is allowing the 12th-highest three-point attempt rate (39.7%).
Our model has Barnes hitting 1.8 threes on 4.9 attempts. With a +126 price on the over, that's the side to be on.
Jrue Holiday Under 2.5 Made Threes (-128)
Jrue Holiday has been taking a lot of threes, but based on his career numbers, it's not going to last.
So far this season, Holiday's three-point attempt rate is 39.6%. That would be a single-season high by a mile. His previous single-season high is 34.4%, and his three-point attempt rate across the previous three years is 34.1%.
The matchup also points to Holiday taking fewer triples. The Milwaukee Bucks are playing the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are giving up the sixth-lowest three-point attempt rate (32.0%). Atlanta is permitting just 13.2 three-point tries per game to backcourts, the second-fewest.
We have Holiday going 2.0 for 5.0 from beyond the arc on Monday. The under looks like a good wager.
