NBA Betting Guide for Monday 11/7/22: Can the Mavericks and Nets Pile Up Points?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Boston Celtics at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 (-106)
An undefeated-at-home (4-0) Memphis team puts that streak up against a 3-2 road team, the Boston Celtics. Overall, Boston is 6-3, and Memphis is 7-3.
The Grizzlies' 4-0 record at home comes with a point differential of +12.5. Adjusting for opponents, my model has their home point differential at a +12.9, and relative to the spread, they're a +5.8.
On the road, Boston's 3-2 record is accompanied by a +1.8 point differential (and +4.7 once accounting for opponents). They're 2-3 against the spread, though, and have underperformed the spread by 2.4 points on average.
The Celtics (8th) do outrank Memphis (9th) in our power rankings, but it's close, and Memphis gets the boost at home.
numberFire's model likes Memphis to cover with a 63.0% probability.
New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves -3.0 (-108)
Over 235.0 (-110)
Rudy Gobert's absence has led to an inflated over/under that's climbed substantially from the open. My model still shows value on that number but also likes the Timberwolves to cover against the visiting New York Knicks.
Without Gobert on the floor but in games with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves have a non-garbage net rating of +8.3 over 365 possessions. That's a pretty large sample.
The Knicks, in games with Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson but with Mitchell Robinson off the court, have a non-garbage net rating of +1.8 over 503 possessions.
New York is also just 1-3 on the road with a -6.3 point differential.
My model likes a 239.5-point total.
Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks
Over 216.5 (-110)
There are a lot of bad defensive samples in the mix when we account for injuries. One of those belongs to the Brooklyn Nets.
In games with Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons but with Kyrie Irving off the floor, the Nets hold a net rating of -32.1 over 110 possessions. That obviously isn't sticky, but they are allowing 135.8 points per 100 possessions to opponents in that split. That's rough. That, too, won't stick, as they've let up a 63.8% effective field goal percentage despite an expected output of 56.0%.
That's still not good, of course. The point here is that they should struggle defensively.
Dallas has been a much friendlier over team this year (75.0% over rate, up from a league-low of 40.8% last year), stemming primarily from allowing points over expected. So far, 62.5% of opponents have gone over their implied team total against the Mavericks (by an average of 4.6 points).
This, then, is a spot where Dallas should score on the defense of the Nets, and the Nets should get right to a degree against a defense that is letting up more points than expected.
