NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 11/2/22: Can the Cavaliers Beat Boston Again?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers +2.0 (-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (+110)

The Cavaliers sport a healthy 5-1 record and are 3-0 at home as they welcome the Boston Celtics (4-2 overall and 2-1 on the road).

These two met back on Friday, a game that went into overtime and ultimately saw the Cavaliers win 132-123 in Boston.

In that matchup, the Cavaliers held an edge in three of the four factors, narrowly winning out in effective field goal percentage (60.9% to 59.1%) but specifically dominating the offensive rebounding matchup (23.7% to 13.2%) and forcing a higher turnover rate (16.5%) than they had themselves (12.8%).

I have the Cavaliers ranked first in the NBA in adjusted point differential (+13.9) with the Celtics sitting fourth (+7.6).

Notably, the Cavaliers have outperformed the spread by an average of 12.5 points; that number for Boston is -3.6.

Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls

Charlotte Hornets +5.5 (-110)
Under 227.5 (-110)

Yes, the Hornets are still without LaMelo Ball. Yes, the Hornets list Terry Rozier and Cody Martin as doubtful. No, that's not the worst thing.

Without those players on the floor this season and in medium-or-higher-leverage situations, the Hornets have a viable net rating of -0.5.

For the Chicago Bulls, we can consider Zach LaVine doubtful after he played on the front end of a back-to-back last night against the Brooklyn Nets.

Without him on the floor and some other adjustments, the Bulls' net rating is a dreadful -12.9. If I smooth that out given a small sample, they're probably around a -4.0 long-term in this split based on how they've played so far.

Either way, the Hornets continue to get a bad rap for their expected splits with key players injured, but they're a solid team overall and deserve some credit. They've got a spread-adjusted point differential of +6.4, seventh-best in the Association.

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers

Under 228.5 (-110)

Rooting for an under in a matchup between LeBron James and Zion Williamson will feel crummy, but the data suggests it's the right call.

numberFire's model rates the under as a three-star play and considers this matchup 63.1% likely to stay under that mark.

Why? Well, for starters, Brandon Ingram is out. In games with Williamson and C.J. McCollum but without Ingram on the floor this season, the New Orleans Pelicans have a non-garbage offensive rating of 107.8, about 4.5 points shy of the league average. Their defensive rating is a 102.3, an outlier rate on the low end. That's an under-friendly setup even when regressing out the sample.

For the Los Angeles Lakers, they consider Anthony Davis questionable against his former team. It's been two days since the Lakers' last game, in which Davis played 36 minutes.

Either way, their offensive rating in games with LeBron, Davis, and Russell Westbrook is a paltry 101.9 over 377 non-garbage possessions. They are a fast team for sure, yet that's not necessarily enough. The Lakers have a 33.3% over rate and are falling short by an average of 11.8 points. That's primarily due to the fact that they've allowed opponents to go over their implied team total in just one of six games.