3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on Tuesday 11/1/22
Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down.
A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud is likely going to leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG, Thunder ($10,800)
Tuesday's four-game slate is a bit tricky, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's high floor works well.
The Thunder are still without Josh Giddey due to an ankle injury, and SGA's role has been stellar when Giddey has been off the floor. He's posted 1.53 FanDuel points per minute in that condition on a hefty 33.1% usage rate.
Normally, I'd be averse to a guard that needs steals in order to reach salary-based value, and that kind of been the case for Gilgeous-Alexander. Yet, SGA is averaging 2.39 steals per 36 minutes, so that is somewhat baked into his averages more so than the normal player.
Gilgeous-Alexander might go overlooked with the lowest game total of the day between Orlando and OKC (216.5), but the 2.5-point spread here still implies a close, competitive contest. SGA should be the one leading the Thunder's offense late in that event.
Kevin Durant, SF/PF, Nets ($10,400)
However, the opposite end of the total spectrum today is in Brooklyn.
The Nets will host the Bulls, and there's a 230.5-point total on deck. Brooklyn's second-worst defensive rating in the NBA (119.1) is now on a back-to-back with a capable offense on the other side. Yes, please.
We discussed the fantasy prospects of Kevin Durant yesterday, who had been cruising to 30-point scoring efforts and just not contributing like in prior seasons to other categories. With nine boards and seven assists on Monday, he did just that.
He'll smash value every time at this salary with those marks. That's in large part due to a 33.9% usage rate that's not going anywhere, as he and Kyrie Irving are already encroaching 40 minutes per night to keep the Nets alive.
Durant's 60.3 FanDuel points on Monday came with just one block and one steal. Irving needed six combined to hit the same FanDuel total. K.D. is the Brooklyn guy to target.
Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, Timberwolves ($9,300)
Center isn't the best spot to spend on Tuesday, but Karl-Anthony Towns is a speculative play worth mentioning.
The Suns lost Deandre Ayton to an injury over the weekend, so they're platooning Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale at the position. They were outrebounded 32-26 in their first game against Houston, so Minnesota's twin towers could be an issue.
The problem is that the duo, Towns and Rudy Gobert, has been a huge letdown. They were expected to dominate the glass together, but they're third from the bottom in estimated defensive rebounding percentage (71.9%).
With their career numbers obviously strong, I just can't see that continuing. This could be a spot for regression. Plus, this national television spot carries the second-highest total on the slate (227.5) with a tight 3.5-point spread.
Towns has posted north of 42 FanDuel points in four games, but he's yet to have that monstrous breakout outing. It could come in this one.