NBA

3 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Tuesday 11/1/22

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Nov 1st, 2022
The Thunder are giving us some value options tonight, including lottery pick Jalen Williams. Which other players can save us salary on a short slate?

One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays.

If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing one of these lower-salaried options into your lineup.

Let's take a look at some players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup on FanDuel tonight, using numberFire's daily fantasy basketball projections as a guide.

Jalen Williams, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder

FanDuel Salary: $4,200

With Josh Giddey out, we'll get a few chances at value for the Oklahoma City Thunder. That includes Jalen Williams at just $4,200.

Williams is projected for 27.8 minutes tonight -- and 24.2 FanDuel points. That FanDuel point output at $4,200 works out to a slate best value (FanDuel points per $1,000) of 5.76.

Williams has averaged 18.8 FanDuel points per game over just 16.4 minutes, which works out to a stellar per-minute rate of 1.15. The 12th pick of the 2022 NBA Draft has a 21.1% usage rate and a strong 7.3 versatility index rating (with the average being 5.0).

My model gives Williams a 13.6% chance to be the top value of the night -- and a 40.2% chance to be a top-five value play by the final buzzer.

Royce O'Neale, SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets

FanDuel Salary: $4,800

Our model is projecting Royce O'Neale for 36.0 minutes, making him the best minute-per-dollar value of the night.

On a larger slate, that's usually not enough to draw us in. On a four-game slate, it's hard to gloss over entirely.

O'Neale's already been averaging 37.4 minutes per game with a viable 25.2 fantasy points per game. That's just 0.67 per minute. O'Neale has been between 0.65 and 0.68 per minute for four straight years entering 2022-23, so we shouldn't anticipate a huge uptick.

That being said, O'Neale is part of the game with the highest total of the night (230.5) while still having a tight spread (-2.0).

The safety here -- O'Neale has played at least 34 minutes in every game this season and Ben Simmons is out -- makes O'Neale a strong value option.

Draymond Green, PF/C, Golden State Warriors

FanDuel Salary: $5,700

We won't confuse Draymond Green for being near the minimum salary or anything, but a sub-$6,000 salary for Green makes him a value play.

He's rating out as 49.2% likely to be a top-five value play across my slate simulations, and numberFire's value rating for him (5.36) ranks fourth-best of the night.

Green's projected for a usual stat-stuffing line: 8.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 2.2 combined steals and blocks.

Green's generating 0.96 FanDuel points per minute. That's still good, but it's also an eight-year low for him. His DARKO stats suggest he should be at a 1.01.

We're then getting a productive player with room to grow in his production while also having a strong minutes projection of 29.3.