3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 10/28/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Derrick White Under 1.5 Made Threes (-122)
So far this season, Derrick White has made 0, 2, 5, and 1 three-pointers on 1, 4, 9, and 5 attempts, respectively, for per-game averages of 2.0 makes and 4.8 attempts.
That would maybe imply an over bet here.
White, though, draws a matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland has faced just 27.8 three-point attempts per game. That's 81.3% of the NBA average of 34.2.
White's early schedule has come against teams that tend to let up more three-point attempts than the average. He has played the Philadelphia 76ers (2nd-most three-point attempts per game allowed), the Miami Heat (6th), the Orlando Magic (7th), and the Chicago Bulls (14th).
He's an expected 34.1% three-point shooter, via DARKO, and I have him projected for 4.1 threes (scaled down from his per-game average of 4.8 for the matchup) and 1.4 makes. The under should be closer to -150.
Kevin Porter Jr. Under 33.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-106)
Kevin Porter Jr.'s per-game stat line is pretty sick: 21.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.4 assists (for a total of 33.3). Once again, that's initially making this one look like a stay-away.
Tonight, Porter Jr. and the Houston Rockets face the Portland Trail Blazers, who rank 22nd in pace on the year, which should knock some possessions off the board for the uptempo Rockets. The Blazers are 16th in defensive rating, by CleaningTheGlass' measure (which removes garbage-time possessions).
With Damian Lillard off the floor (he's out tonight), their defensive rating scales back to 100.9 over 111 possessions. Even regressing that to the league average over more possessions until things stabilize, they should be around 107.8, substantially better than average.
numberFire projects Porter Jr. for 31.1 total points (19.5), rebounds (4.9), and assists (6.7).
Jordan Clarkson Under 27.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-111)
Jordan Clarkson is chipping in across the stat sheet, and across these prop-relevant stats, he's averaging 18.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists (28.2 per game) across 31.7 minutes.
What's the catch?
numberFire's model anticipates 30.1 minutes for Clarkson tonight, a noticeable step back. The Utah Jazz have already played two overtime games, allowing Clarkson to record minutes totals of 34 and 36. In his three other games, he's played 29, 28, and 28 minutes (so 28.3 minutes per game).
His expected points-rebounds-assist rate (based on DARKO baselines) is 0.793 per minute. At a projection of 30.1 minutes, Clarkson comes out at 23.9 combined points, rebounds, and assists by that measure.
That's the same total projected by numberFire's model (17.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists).