5 NBA FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Friday 10/28/22
One of the keys to finding success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays.
If you're looking to roster a stud player or two, you need to consider squeezing one of these lower-salaried options into your lineup.
Let's take a look at some players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup on FanDuel tonight, using numberFire's daily fantasy basketball projections as a guide.
Josh Richardson, SF/SG, San Antonio Spurs ($4,800)
Josh Richardson is slated to play 31.9 minutes, via our model, and that represents an 8.7-minute boost from his per-game average so far this season (23.2). Richardson's 21.4 FanDuel points per game and 0.93 FanDuel points per minute are stellar marks for a sub-$5,000 salary projected into a bigger role.
The Spurs are up against a Chicago Bulls team that remains without Lonzo Ball and that lists Zach LaVine as questionable. Despite that, this matchup has a 229.5-point over/under, tied for the second-highest mark of the night.
It also comes with a 4.5-point spread, making it the tightest of the games with totals of 229.5 or higher. It's a great recipe for value.
Jeremy Sochan, SF/PF, San Antonio Spurs ($4,800)
Richardson isn't the only Spur shaping up to be a salary-saving option.
Jeremy Sochan is projected for 27.9 minutes of his own (up from a per-game average of 22.0). On a per-minute basis, Sochan, this year's ninth overall pick in the NBA draft, is averaging 0.76 FanDuel points. That's not going to blow us away, but it's firmly in the usable range when injected into a larger role and considering the inexperience.
numberFire's model actually projects a better value rating (i.e. FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) for Sochan (5.73) than for Richardson (5.60), but they are two of the top three value plays of the night -- and the two best ones below $6,000.
Shaedon Sharpe, SG, Portland Trail Blazers ($4,200)
Shaedon Sharpe, the seventh pick in the draft this season, has played an average of only 16.4 minutes so far but did get 21 minutes in his most recent outing. In that game against the Miami Heat, he took a career-high 12 shot attempts, including 5 three-point attempts. Sharpe hauled in 8 rebounds, as well, for 25.6 FanDuel points.
Sharpe is actually rating out as the most likely leader in value tonight in my slate simulations at 12.1%. He's also 29.9% likely to be a top-five value by night's end -- also the highest rate of any player.
Mason Plumlee, C, Charlotte Hornets ($4,900)
Mason Plumlee with minutes is always interesting.
Plumlee, this season, is averaging 1.03 FanDuel points per minute. His past five seasons have yielded totals of 0.97, 1.12, 1.12, 1.12, and 1.05. He has never posted a FanDuel-point-per-minute rate lower than 0.95.
It's not a surprise, then, that he's projected for slightly more FanDuel points (26.6) than minutes (25.7) in a spot against the hapless Orlando Magic.
Orlando does have a non-garbage-time defensive rating of 113.9 (20th in the NBA), so while it's not near the bottom of the league, it is still below average.
Cam Johnson, SF/PF, Phoenix Suns ($4,300)
Not all value plays should be viewed equally; some are value plays due to heavy minutes despite modest per-minute production. Others can overcome modest minutes with elite production.
Cam Johnson falls into the latter portion.
He's pretty locked into a solid role -- at least from a shot volume standpoint. In 27, 22, 22, and 33 minutes, Johnson has taken 13, 9, 6, and 11 field goal attempts (with three-point attempt tallies of 6, 6, 4, and 6).
numberFire projects Johnson for 2.4 made threes tonight with a total of 12.4 points. He's projected to tack on 4.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.3 combined steals and blocks.
Anyone who can get up shots like this can exceed value substantially, and the New Orleans Pelicans are allowing the ninth-most three-point attempts per game (36.0).