3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 10/27/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Ben Simmons Over 22.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-104)
Ben Simmons' per-game averages -- 5.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 7.5 assists -- total only 18.6, so the inclination would be the under.
numberFire's model is projecting Simmons for 9.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, a total of 23.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
That's a pretty efficient line, all things considered, but my model has Simmons up at 25.0 combined points, rebounds, and assists for tonight's game against the Dallas Mavericks.
Why the boost? Well, he's being projected for 34.7 minutes, which is up from a season average of 29.6. In two games, he failed to hit 30 minutes.
In the other two, he played 32 and 34 minutes with totals of 6 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists (24 combined) plus 4 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists (18 combined).
Simmons, though, is averaging 13.3 potential assists per game, a top-16 rate in the NBA, and this game is expected to be competitive throughout, meaning the minutes should be safe.
Desmond Bane Over 19.5 Points (-113)
The Kings are 22nd in non-garbage-time defensive rating to start the season and are allowing an average of 118.7 points, 8th-most in the NBA.
Bane is coming off a scoring outburst for 38 points on 14-of-21 shooting, including 8-for-11 from beyond the arc. But he also made 6 two-point attempts on 10 shots. He's not just a shooter.
The Kings are generally good at limiting the three-pointer but have enough defensive concerns to back the over for Bane now that he seems to be out of a shooting rut that has limited his points outputs to 16, 14, and 14. Basically: he's been scoring even while inefficient.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Under 16.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-108)
Robinson-Earl has three assists through four games, all coming in one matchup. The rebounding wasn't there until last game, either (5, 2, 2, and 9 for a per-game average of 4.5).
He's averaging only 5.5 shot attempts, too, quelling the easiest way to rack up these counting stats.
Our model projects Robinson-Earl for 7.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.2 assists, a total of just 14.6.