3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 10/25/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Bradley Beal Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+128)
So far this season, Bradley Beal has averaged only 1.0 made threes on 3.3 attempts (30.0% shooting) and has made 2, 1, and 0 shots from deep in his individual games.
The shot volume has trended down, too: seven, two, and one.
Why like a bounceback? Beal is facing a Detroit Pistons team that allows 36.7 three-point attempts per game, 2.5 more than the NBA average. They're even worse on a per-possession basis and allow 35.8 three-point attempts per 100 possessions, ranking ninth-highest in the league.
The Pistons don't defend the arc as well, and we should feel good about a return to more volume for Beal tonight.
Kyle Kuzma Under 17.5 Points (-105)
If Beal is going to get more shots up, that could be bad for teammate Kyle Kuzma.
Kuzma is averaging 19.7 points per game in his three contests so far this season and is doing so on 40.0% shooting from deep and 46.5% overall from the field. His rates last year were 34.1% and 45.2%, respectively, and he's a career 33.9% three-point shooter.
Our model projects Kuzma for only 15.7 points on a slight volume decrease (13.2 shot attempts) from his season rate (14.3). It's more about the efficiency on those shots than a huge role shift.
Spencer Dinwiddie Over 2.5 Rebounds (-110)
Dinwiddie has averaged 27.9 minutes in his two games so far but is projected for 30.8 minutes tonight as a result. Dinwiddie has rebound totals of 2 and 3 (so an average of 2.5), but this prop doesn't quite account for his expected minutes shift.
Dinwiddie is projected by numberFire for 4.2 rebounds. At that rate, we should consider him around 79.0% likely to go over. My model has his projected rebound total at "just" 3.6, and even then, we're looking at around a 70.0% over rate.