NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 10/20/22: Should We Just Take the Points Tonight?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
Milwaukee Bucks +4.0 (+110) - 1 star
The public really must have liked what it saw from the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday night during their 126-117 loss to the Boston Celtics in Boston.
Despite 67% of the spread bets being on the Bucks, 60% of the spread money is on the Sixers in this spot. That has shifted the line a good way, and it now sits at 76ers -4.0.
At this point, there's value on the Bucks. numberFire's model views them as 54.2% likely to cover.
In games with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday but without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton last year, the Bucks had a net rating of +3.5.
The 76ers, in games with Joel Embiid and James Harden, were at a +5.5 since last season.
Using those as reference points and accounting for pace, my model thinks the spread should be 1.8 points, thus also pointing to the Bucks.
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 (-108) - 2 stars
Under 225.5 (-110) - 3 stars
Here's another spot where the public is pretty heavy on one side: the Los Angeles Clippers. We're seeing 67% of the spread bets on the Clips and 79% of the spread money.
Once again, the data disagrees with the public here and prefers the Lakers to cover the spread as an underdog.
In games since last season with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook, the Lakers had a -1.8 net rating but played better-than-average defense (a 110.9 defensive rating).
My model also likes the Lakers to cover and thinks the spread should be Clippers -5.0, so it's close.
It's also finding value on the under (225.5), same as numberFire's model. Both of these teams, in relevant samples based on health, have pretty stout defenses and result in a preference for the under.
