3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 10/18/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds (-113)
With just two games to pick from, we're at risk of getting out over our skis with prop action and trying to force value where there may not be any.
One place where we do see value is with Jayson Tatum's rebounding prop.
numberFire's model projects him for 8.0 rebounds. Given that projection, his odds should be around -121 for the over.
The Philadelphia 76ers actually ranked 20th in rebounding rate a year ago, and Tatum averaged 12.0 rebounds per game against them on an average of 34.4 minutes. He's projected for 35.8 minutes tonight.
Derrick White Over 2.5 Assists (-122)
Although Derrick White's assist prop over has some heavy-ish odds attached to it at -122, based on the projection for him (4.0), there's more than enough value to bet the over.
White, including playoffs, had at least three assists in 29 of 49 games with the Boston Celtics a year ago (59.2%), including four or more helpers in 17 of those games.
White averaged 0.18 assists per minute a year ago. At his projected minutes rate for tonight (25.9), he'd actually be projected for 4.7 assists. Either way we look at it, the best side here is the over.
Anthony Davis Under 36.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-115)
The model here is way lower on Anthony Davis' points projection (18.5) than the prop of 24.5.
Why is it so low?
Well, Davis scored 0.66 points per minute a year ago on a career-worst effective field goal percentage of 40.3%. At a projection of 35.3 minutes, that scoring rate would tally 23.3 points. That's a lot closer than the raw projection of 18.5, of course.
Davis' scoring rate was still 0.66 against the Golden State Warriors in two matchups. He did average 24.5 points in those two games, but that included a 33-point outing on opening night when he shot 57.7% from the field on 26 attempts and then just 16 points on 13 shots in February on the back of a 38.5% shooting night.
Combined, he is projected for 31.1 points, rebounds, and assists. He can overcome that with an increased scoring rate, yet there's enough room on the under here (per the projections) to side with it.