The NBA is just like anything in life –- things recycle, players get older, and new players replace them. Our favorite players growing up -- like Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, Larry Bird -- all eventually retire and make way for the new generations.
I know some people get sad or nostalgic about that cycle, but I personally find it exciting. Who knows what’s out there –- until last year, we thought VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and WAR (Wins Above Replacement), calculated from ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus.
Warning: some of the breakout players might surprise you.
Let’s start with VORP. Here’s a list of the top-20 players (actually, a couple more than that because of ties at the end) in terms of this year’s VORP minus last year’s mark. It will give us a picture of which players are making a leap into better play this season.
Note: Data as of 2/23/15
Value Over Replacement Player
| Player | '13-'14 VORP | '14-'15 VORP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert | -0.2 | 2.4 | +2.6 |
| Al Horford | 1.0 | 2.6 | +1.6 |
| Tyson Chandler | 1.3 | 2.9 | +1.6 |
| Rodney Stuckey | -1.0 | 0.6 | +1.6 |
| Gorgui Dieng | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 |
| Russell Westbrook | 3.1 | 4.6 | +1.5 |
| Ed Davis | 0.2 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| Khris Middleton | 0.2 | 1.5 | +1.3 |
| Pau Gasol | 1.1 | 2.4 | +1.3 |
| Jeff Teague | 0.7 | 1.9 | +1.2 |
| Brandon Knight | 0.7 | 1.8 | +1.1 |
| Lavoy Allen | -0.2 | 0.9 | +1.1 |
| Tony Wroten | -1.0 | 0.1 | +1.1 |
| Lou Williams | 0.1 | 1.2 | +1.1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 0.1 | 1.2 | +1.1 |
| Donatas Motiejunas | -0.3 | 0.7 | +1.0 |
| Evan Turner | -1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| Patrick Patterson | 1.3 | 2.3 | +1.0 |
| Marc Gasol | 2.3 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
| Ben McLemore | -0.5 | 0.4 | +0.9 |
| Harrison Barnes | 0.4 | 1.3 | +0.9 |
| Devin Harris | 0.1 | 1.0 | +0.9 |
| Alex Len | -0.3 | 0.6 | +0.9 |
| O.J. Mayo | -0.6 | 0.3 | +0.9 |
The lanky Frenchman, Nylon Calculus' rim protection statistics, Gobert is easily the best rim protector in the league. He saves approximately 4.38 points per 36 minutes for the Jazz, which is miles ahead of second-place rim protector learning a lot as a basketball community just how important defense is to a team. Middleton is statistically as good as it gets when it comes to defense –- among all shooting guards, he ranks number one in the NBA in Defensive RPM (DRPM) at 4.10. He’s ahead of noted defenders Andre Roberson, Danny Green, Andre Iguodala, DeMar DeRozan, Wesley Matthews, and Klay Thompson.
Middleton is also shooting a ridiculous 41.8% from the three-point line. It’s probably fair to say he is the best 3-and-D guy in the league right now. He’s making less than $1 million this year as well, making him potentially one of the most valuable players in the NBA this season, if you judge in terms of dollar-per-whatever-production-statistic you'd like.
Also on the list are obvious guys like James Harden and Anthony Davis (both having MVP-type seasons), Ben McLemore (bouncing back from a bad rookie campaign), Markieff Morris (making his new contract look ridiculously valuable), Gordon Hayward (ditto), Lou Williams (sixth man of the year?), Cody Zeller (a bright spot for Charlotte), and Draymond Green (gonna get paid this summer). There are so many good storylines this year and so many exciting, great young players to watch. The NBA has such a deep talent pool and is certainly setup to be outstanding for a long time. Let’s enjoy it.