NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Thursday 1/10/13

What do you do when the Mavericks can't seem to rebound to save Mark Cuban's life? Load up on the Sacramento big men facing them.

We're all about the stats, here at numberFire. Whether it's looking at advanced analytics or predicting games or helping you determine the best players for your fantasy team, we know how to manipulate the numbers to know what's going to happen before it actually happens.

Now, we've decided to ply that trade towards the NBA, giving you the top Daily Fantasy Picks each day. Through the power of Math!, we've optimized the best possible roster for your Daily Fantasy needs, using the cost figures and scoring system from our friends at StarStreet as a guide.

As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. But I'm here to break down the best of the best and tell you why they're so valuable.

The numberFire Optimized Roster

PlayerPositionProjected FPCostValue
LeBron JamesF45.43$17,5002.6
Dwyane WadeG37.83$14,0002.7
Chris BoshF/C33.00$12,8002.58
David WestPF30.53$11,6002.63
George HillG/F30.78$10,2003.02
O.J. MayoSG30.88$9,4003.29
Jason ThompsonF/C25.35$9,0002.82
Darren CollisonPG25.18$8,2003.07
Tyler HansbroughF/C13.75$6,0002.29

LeBron James - He may be the highest-priced player on our list, but he's also the most valuable: he's projected to have both the most points (25.8) and assists (6.8) of any player on the court tonight.

Dwyane Wade - Have no worries about Wade getting his points. He's facing a Portland defense that has allowed opponents to shoot a .504 effective field goal percentage (eFG%), 24th in the NBA.

Chris Bosh - It's time for a block party! Bosh has 11 in his past four games and has blocked a career-high 3.4 percent of opponents' shots this year. That's why he's projected for 1.2 more tonight.

David West - Don't let that two-game slump fool you. West bounced back with 14 points, 11 rebounds, and perhaps most importantly, 34 minutes played against Miami on Tuesday. His 18.9 percent defensive rebound rate, highest on the Pacers, is too valuable for Indiana to sit for long.

George Hill - He may be recovering from bronchitis, but by all indications, he should be good to go tonight. And that's a boon to Daily Fantasy players looking to get in before his value skyrockets: he's put up double-digit points and 30 minutes played in each game he's been fully healthy for since December 5.

O.J. Mayo - Even with Dirk back, Mayo's production hasn't taken too much of a hit. He's scored at least 13 points in each of Dallas's five games in 2013, and he's hit five assists in three of those games as well.

Jason Thompson - Thompson should have numerous opportunities to shine against the Dallas big men. The Mavericks are 28th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage and 24th in defensive rebounding percentage. He's also projected for 11.7 points, and that may actually be on the low end of the scale; he's scored in double-digits in 12 of his last 14 games.

Darren Collison - Looking for some cheap assists? We've got your man. His 5.6 projected assists are the third-highest total today behind Damion Lillard and LeBron James, and he costs over $4,000 less than either of those players.

Tyler Hansbrough - None of the centers today are adding that much value for their price, and Chris Kaman's just a bit out of our optimized price range. Hansbrough's not a bad consolation prize though, adding legitimate backup center minutes for a fraction of the cost.

Quick Hits

Your deep sleeper of the day is Sacramento's Chuck Hayes, who costs only the minimum $4,000 but is projected to score 12.08 fantasy points. A projected 4.6 rebounds is the key to Hayes being valuable; he's grabbed defensive boards on 17.3 percent of his opportunities while on the floor this season. All aboard the Sacramento (Seattle?) big man train!

Stay away from Portland's Wesley Matthews today. He may look like a quality player at the cost of $11,500, but a projected 14.7 points says otherwise. Facing off against Dwyane Wade and Wade's 105 defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) might have something to do with that, as would Miami's team .486 eFG% allowed (11th in the NBA).

The game to watch today is clearly Miami/Portland, which we already analyzed earlier today. Of our top five projected fantasy point totals, four come from this game in the form of James, Wade, Chris Bosh, and Lillard.