NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/23/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Bam Adebayo Under 16.5 Points (-110)
But two things happened in that game that are unlikely to happen today -- Jimmy Butler missed the second half, leading to Bam taking 22 shots, and Bam shot lights out, making 15 of those 22 attempts (68.1%).
Butler is expected to play today, and I think that will push Bam back to his usual role. That role has been a pretty minor one offensively in the playoffs. Prior to Game 3, Adebayo had taken more than 12 shots just once in the playoffs, and that was a 14-attempt night way back in Game 1 in the first round. He took just six, four, five and seven shots in his past four games, leading to a high of 12 points in that span.
As for the shooting efficiency, Adebayo hit 55.7% of his shots in the regular season and is at 60.9% in these playoffs. He's a very efficient scorer, but the 68.1% clip from Game 3 is a little ridiculous even for Bam.
We project Adebayo to score 15.5 points tonight, and as long as Butler suits up, the under is a good bet here.
Jimmy Butler Over 1.5 Steals (-113)
Butler has gone over 1.5 steals in two of the three games of this series. He swiped two steals in just 19 minutes before exiting early last time out.
In these playoffs, Butler has recorded at least two steals in 10 of 14 games.
He averaged 1.6 steals per night in the regular season, and he's averaged at least 1.6 steals per game in every regular season since 2013-14.
Our model has Butler totaling 1.9 steals in Game 4. As long as Butler is expected to see him usual minutes, which appears to be the case as of Monday afternoon, this is a good prop to target.