NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 5/12/22: Looking Hard for Value on Some Game 6s
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
There isn't much in the way of betting value in tonight's slate, according to our model. The only listed play here is just a one-star (i.e. one-unit) recommendation on the 76ers' moneyline (-136).
At -136 odds, the 76ers should be considered at least 57.6% likely to win. Our model gives them a 59.8% chance to extend the series.
Since 2016, home playoff teams favored by 2.0 to 3.0 points are 28-21 outright (57.1% win rate; in line with the odds and numberFire's model), and they are 22-22-2 against the spread (53.2%).
My model also shows a lean on the over (207.5). A parlay of a 76ers win plus the over has odds of +240.
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Again, there's just a single one-star play here, and it's on the over at 212.0 points. Our model sees it as 53.9% likely to go over that number, for an expected return of 2.9%.
The Suns have gone over at a 54.5% clip themselves, primarily by allowing opponents to surpass their implied team total in 63.6% of games.
The Mavericks are yet to allow an opponent to go over their implied total in any home game in the playoffs, but Dallas plays to their own implied total, on average.
Though our model doesn't show any love for the spread, it's worth noting some smart money indication on the Suns' side of things. NBA odds shows 68% of spread bets on the Suns along with 71% of the money. That's a small discrepancy, but it's there, and it's trending toward a pretty one-sided affair.
Since 2016, road teams favored by 1.5 to 2.5 points are 28-18 outright (60.9%) and 25-20-1 (55.6%) against the spread.
The Suns to win and for the game to go over 212.5 points can be found at +270 at FanDuel Sportsbook.