NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 5/12/22: Looking Hard for Value on Some Game 6s

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

Series
- Miami Heat 3, Philadelphia 76ers 2

Main Algorithm Picks
- 76ers Moneyline (-136, 1 star)

There isn't much in the way of betting value in tonight's slate, according to our model. The only listed play here is just a one-star (i.e. one-unit) recommendation on the 76ers' moneyline (-136).

At -136 odds, the 76ers should be considered at least 57.6% likely to win. Our model gives them a 59.8% chance to extend the series.

Removing low-leverage possessions, the 76ers now have a -3.6 net rating against the Heat in the playoffs with Joel Embiid on the floor.

In games since the All-Star break, Philadelphia is 20-10 in games with both Embiid and James Harden playing with a non-garbage net rating of +6.1.

As for the Heat, they will be without Kyle Lowry. Miami is 18-8 in games with Jimmy Butler since the break with a non-garbage net rating of +9.1 when Lowry is off the floor in those games.

Since 2016, home playoff teams favored by 2.0 to 3.0 points are 28-21 outright (57.1% win rate; in line with the odds and numberFire's model), and they are 22-22-2 against the spread (53.2%).

My model also shows a lean on the over (207.5). A parlay of a 76ers win plus the over has odds of +240.

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks

Series
- Phoenix Suns 3, Dallas Mavericks 2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Over (212.0, 1 star)

Again, there's just a single one-star play here, and it's on the over at 212.0 points. Our model sees it as 53.9% likely to go over that number, for an expected return of 2.9%.

The Suns have gone over at a 54.5% clip themselves, primarily by allowing opponents to surpass their implied team total in 63.6% of games.

The Mavericks are yet to allow an opponent to go over their implied total in any home game in the playoffs, but Dallas plays to their own implied total, on average.

Though our model doesn't show any love for the spread, it's worth noting some smart money indication on the Suns' side of things. NBA odds shows 68% of spread bets on the Suns along with 71% of the money. That's a small discrepancy, but it's there, and it's trending toward a pretty one-sided affair.

Since 2016, road teams favored by 1.5 to 2.5 points are 28-18 outright (60.9%) and 25-20-1 (55.6%) against the spread.

The Suns to win and for the game to go over 212.5 points can be found at +270 at FanDuel Sportsbook.