NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 5/10/22: Will the Home Teams Hold Serve in Game 5?

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 May 10th, 2022
Both Miami and Phoenix are favored to win at home. Does our algorithm agree?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Series
- Philadelphia 76ers 2, Miami Heat 2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Heat Moneyline (-156, 2 stars)
- Under (209.5, 1 star)

Removing low-leverage situations, the 76ers have a net rating of +11.4 against the Heat in this series with Joel Embiid on the floor.

That stems from a shot quality rating of 55.0% (i.e. an expected field goal percentage [eFG%] indicator) with an actual eFG% of 62.5%, so they should cool down soon. That said, they're still getting good shots, per the shot quality data.

Notably, the Heat have just a 45.5% eFG% against Philadephia in the series when Embiid is playing, but that comes with a better shot quality rating of 50.0%.

Either way, the 76ers have had the edge in both of their home games with Embiid on the floor. (In case you're wondering, their net rating in those two games overall -- whether Embiid was on the floor or not -- is +14.9 in non-garbage situations.)

Despite that, the model likes the Heat to win at home. The top betting option of the whole night is just a two-star play for the Heat moneyline at -156 (odds that imply a 60.9% win probability). numberFire's algorithm likes the Heat as 65.3% likely to win, instead, and forge ahead 3-2 in the series. That's good for an expected return of 7.2%.

Home teams in the playoffs since 2016 are 341-226 (60.1%) outright, and home teams favored by 2.5 to 3.5 points are 24-17 (58.5%).

The under is also getting some play at 209.5. Since the All-Star break, the 76ers are 50.0% at going over their own implied total; the Heat have done so just 37.5% of the time.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Series
- Dallas Mavericks 2, Phoenix Suns 2

Main Algorithm Picks
- Over (213.0, 1 star)
- Suns Moneyline (-260, 1 star)

There are just one-star leans in this game on the over and on the Suns outright.

The Phoenix moneyline (-260) suggests a 72.2% win chance; our model views Phoenix as 74.1% likely to get the win. The expected return there is 2.6%. That's why it's just a one-star (i.e. one-unit) recommendation.

Since the deadline, my adjusted points data has the Suns at a +6.0 and the Mavericks at a +5.0. Accounting for homecourt advantage, my numbers like the Suns with a 60.3% win probability.

My data also projects a total of 221.3 points, and numberFire's algorithm has the expected total at 215.1 points.

This has also been an over-friendly type of playoff over/under. In playoff games since 2016 with a total between 213.0 and 214.0, the over is 20-14 (58.8%).