NBA Betting Guide for Monday 5/9/22: Will Golden State Run Away With Game 4?

Ja Morant is listed as doubtful for Game 4. There's no chance the Grizzlies can cover without him -- right?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

- Milwaukee Bucks 2, Boston Celtics 1

Main Algorithm Picks
- Over 212.0 (4 stars)

- Celtics Spread (+1.0, 1 star)

The spread and moneyline are not spots where our model wants us to go tonight primarily. There's no recommendation on the moneyline for either team (our model is rating the Celtics as 51.0% likely to get the win).

There's a slight lean on them to cover as 1.0-point underdogs, though. The algo sees that as 54.5% likely, leading to a small expected return of 4.0%. While 64% of spread bets are on Milwaukee to cover, 56% of the money is, suggesting some lopsidedness in the bets there.

The main play is the over (212.0) -- and pretty comfortably. The over is rating as 67.9% likely to occur, good for an expected return of 29.6%.

The projected final score here is 111.06 to 110.81 for the Celtics, a total of 221.87. My model, using data since the All-Star Break, also likes a total of 221.65.

The low point totals in the series thus far are stemming from poor offense rather than tempo, as well, so that should help us buy back into an over.

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies

- Golden State Warriors 2, Memphis Grizzlies 1

Main Algorithm Picks
- Grizzlies Spread (+10, 4 stars)

- Grizzlies Moneyline (+390, 3 stars)
- Under (224.5, 2 stars)

The big news in this game is the health of Ja Morant, who is doubtful to play due to his knee injury sustained in Game 3 of the series.

Without Morant on the floor -- since the All-Star break and with low-leverage possessions removed from the data -- the Grizzlies have a net rating of +7.7. Yes, that's a plus, not a minus.

In games without Morant, their record is 8-3 with an even better plus-minus of +11.5.

The Grizzlies being solid (if not good or even great) without Morant is a bit of a statistical anomaly.

Their offensive shot quality (or expected field goal percentage [eFG%] from shot selection) is 51.0% in games without Morant, and they overperform in that department with an actual eFG% of 53.3%. Opponents are at a 52.0% in both shot quality and actual eFG%.

So, while a rout is definitely in the cards in Game 4, Memphis' data isn't as damning as you might think without Morant.

That helps us buy into a double-digit spread for Memphis even if everyone else is on the Warriors (63% of spread bets and 72% of spread money is on the Warriors).