NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/9/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Dillon Brooks Under 18.5 Points (-122)
The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to be without Ja Morant, who is listed as doubtful. That obviously shakes up the Grizzles' usage, and with Ja missing a good amount of time this season, we have a decent idea of how things might shake out tonight.
With Ja off the floor this year, Dillon Brooks paces Memphis in usage rate at a clip of 29.5%, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. But that's not actually that much of an increase for Brooks, who logged a gaudy 28.3% usage rate for the season.
Brooks is a streaky guy, and that's been evident this postseason. Prior to his ejection in Game 2, Brooks had shooting outings of 10 for 20 and 9 for 19 sandwiched around a 3-for-18 night. He should get plenty of looks in Game 4, but he'll also be keyed on by the Golden State Warriors, who rank third in defensive rating over the last three games among all postseason teams.
And if you like narratives, the Dubs probably want to make life miserable for Brooks after his hard foul on Gary Payton II.
In all, we project Brooks for 17.9 points, and while a red-hot shooting performance could send him way over this line, the under is where I'll be.
Robert Williams Over 7.5 Points (-136)
After missing some time, Robert Williams has worked his way back into being a key piece for the Boston Celtics, and our projections like the over on his points prop.
In the past two games, Williams has played 23 and 25 minutes while netting 10 points in each outing. Maybe the most promising thing of all is that Williams took nine shots in Game 3, the most he's taken in a game since he came off the shelf.
Williams averaged 10.0 points per game in the regular season, and he seems to be close to 100% now. It might be hard for him to push for 30 minutes with Boston opting to give Grant Williams a lot of run off the bench, but Robert has always been an efficient per-minute producer, so he should do work with the minutes he gets.
Our algorithm projects him to score 8.3 points in Game 4.