NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Friday 5/6/22: Can the Home Teams Pick Up Wins?

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 May 6th, 2022
Will the home teams be able to avoid 3-0 deficits? And even if not, can they cover the spread?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Series
- Miami Heat 2, Philadelphia 76ers 0

Main Algorithm Picks
- 76ers Spread (+3.0, 3 stars)
- 76ers Moneyline (+126, 3 stars)
- Under (210.0, 1 star)

The key storyline tonight is the health of Joel Embiid, who has been upgraded to doubtful for Game 3. The Sixers' status as 3.0-point home underdogs and +126 moneyline underdogs (implying 44.3% win odds) is promising for his status.

The betting public is big on the Heat, however. So far, 81% of spread bets have been on the Heat, and that's tied to 83% of the money, as well, according to NBA odds.

Our model is going the other way and views the 76ers to cover and to win outright as three-star (i.e. three-unit) opportunities.

Outright, the 76ers are rating as 59.4% likely to win, per numberFire's model (mine has their odds at 51.0%, making it much closer to a pick 'em). That said, with +3.0 points or +126 juice, taking the 76ers makes sense.

Via PBPStats, the 76ers -- since the All-Star break and on non-garbage possessions -- have a net rating of +5.8 in games with Embiid but -6.6 with him off the floor. It's hard to understate his impact.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Series
- Phoenix Suns 2, Dallas Mavericks 0

Main Algorithm Picks
- Under (219.5, 2 stars)
- Suns Moneyline (-112, 1 star)
- Suns Spread (+0.5, 1 star)

Game 2 in this series offered little in the way of betting value, and we're seeing that again in Game 3 with little more than leans projected from our model.

The best bet here is the under (219.5), so let's dig in there first.

Notably, since 2016, the under is 580-520-22 (52.7% win rate) across all NBA playoff games. In 46 games where the home team was favored by 2.0 points or fewer, the under is 25-19-2 (56.8%), and if we're willing to trust a 10-game sample, then the under is 8-2-0 when the spread is within a point for the favored home team.

Basically, history shows that tight games and playoff games hit the under, and this game projects for both.

Speaking of history, the 25 most comparable historical games to this one in our database are way in on the Suns. Teams representing Phoenix are 20-5-0 outright and against the spread, and the under is 22-3-0.