NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/4/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Tyrese Maxey Under 2.5 Made Threes (-118)
In the regular season, with James Harden on the floor and Joel Embiid off, Tyrese Maxey's usage didn't change much. In that split, he had just an 18.2% usage rate, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ, which was actually a drop of 0.6 percentage points from his usual clip.
That played out in Game 1 as Maxey took 15 shots -- only his fourth-most attempts across the Philadelphia 76ers' seven postseason games this year.
Maxey went 1 of 6 from deep in Game 1, and he's canned one or fewer treys in four of his past five games. He's taken six or fewer three-balls in five of his last six contests, so for him to get to the over here, he'll need to either shoot more threes than he has been or make a high percentage of the ones he takes.
Our projections don't see either of those things happening as we have Maxey hitting 1.9 threes on 4.8 attempts.
Luka Doncic Under 33.5 Points (-114)
After watching Luka Doncic torch the Phoenix Suns for 45 points in Game 1, it sure doesn't feel good to back the under on his points prop, but that's the direction our model leans.
Prior to the 45-point masterclass, Luka had netted 33 or fewer points in all three of his postseason games this year. He'd also taken no more than 22 shots in any game, but he hoisted up 30 shots on a huge 40.8% usage rate in Game 1.
We have Doncic's usage regressing in Game 2 as we project him to finish with just 25.2 shot attempts, and that puts me on the under on Luka's points prop.
Our numbers have Doncic pouring in 33.1 points tonight.