NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/2/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
James Harden Over 2.5 Made Threes (-120)
The absence of Joel Embiid is obviously going to have a huge impact on the usage of the Philadelphia 76ers.
According to RotoGrinders' Court IQ, in the regular season, with Embiid off the floor and James Harden on it, Harden held a massive 36.1% usage rate -- an increase of 11.1 percentage points from his usual clip. He's going to have the ball in his hands a lot tonight, and he's probably going to take a whole bunch of shots.
That leads me to the over on his made threes prop.
The Miami Heat allowed the highest three-point attempt rate in the league (45.2%) over the final 15 regular-season games, and while Miami bottled up Trae Young, a fully unleashed Harden should be a different level of beast.
We project Harden for 2.6 made triples on 7.6 tries. I think we might be short-changing Harden just a tad, and I lean more heavily toward the over.
Devin Booker 20+ Points/Suns to Win (+100)
This stands out as a nice player-performance double to target.
Devin Booker made his return in the final game of the last round, and he ended up playing 32 minutes as the Phoenix Suns closed out the New Orleans Pelicans. That game was back on April 28th, so it stands to reason Booker should be ready for his normal minutes load tonight -- or at least really close to it.
In his return, Booker was a wee bit rusty and hit only 5 of 12 shots en route to 13 points. Prior to that game, he had netted at least 20 points in 22 straight outings, going for at least 25 points in 13 of his previous 14 games. As long as the minutes are there -- and we project him for 36 minutes -- Book is a safe bet to get at least 20 points.
The second part of this is a Suns victory. Phoenix is a commanding -210 to win and is a 5.5-point favorite. That -210 moneyline implies odds of 67.7%, but our algorithm hands the Suns win odds of 73.8% -- making the Suns on the moneyline one of the day's best bets.
All in all, +100 is a pretty enticing price for this player-performance double.
