NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/27/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 33.5 Points (-110)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is probably going to have a big game tonight in Game 5, but this line is just a touch too high, per our numbers.
Through four games in this series, Giannis has put up 27, 33, 18 and 32 points, so he's yet to go over 33 points. He's played the Chicago Bulls seven times this season and has gone for at least 34 points just once. Giannis hasn't scored 34-plus points in any of his past eight games overall.
On top of that, there is plenty of blowout risk tonight with the Milwaukee Bucks a 12.0-point home favorite. We saw Giannis get just 29 minutes in a 30-point win in Game 3. With Milwaukee looking to close it out and Chicago sans Zach LaVine, this could be a lopsided contest.
Our model projects Giannis to net 31.3 points.
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+122)
Klay Thompson is one of the best shooters in NBA history, but the clip he's shooting from deep is unsustainable -- even for him.
Thompson was on fire in the two games in Denver, shooting 7 of 11 and 6 of 13 from deep. He's in the midst of a red-hot seven-game run that dates back to the final three games of the regular season. Over those seven games, Thompson has hit an astounding 42 of 83 three-point tries (50.6%), including 21 of 42 in this series.
As great as Klay is, he just can't keep this up forever.
In addition to the negative regression from three that's coming at some point, Klay might not see his usual minutes if this game is a blowout -- something that's a possibility with the Golden State Warriors an 8.5-point favorite in a home closeout game.
We project Thompson to make 3.7 triples on 9.8 attempts in tonight's Game 4, which is right at this line. With the over at -154 and the under at +122, the under is the side to be on.