NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 4/26/22: Our Model Is Loving Some Game 5s
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks Spread (+7.0) - 1 star
The only recommended action in this game by numberFire's algorithm is on the Hawks' spread (+7.0), and even that's just a one-unit suggestion with a 53.3% probability.
There's a 71.8% chance that the Miami Heat close the series, yet that's not strong enough to overcome a -290 moneyline (which implies a 73.4% win chance). On the flip side of that, the 28.2% win chance our model gives Atlanta isn't enough for value on their +235 moneyline (29.9% implied odds).
The Hawks find themselves last in the playoffs in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.24) after ranking fourth in the regular season at a mark of 2.08. Things should turn around on the offensive end for them soon enough, and while that may not lead to an extension of this series, it should help them cover.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline (-240) - 3 stars
Over (232.0) - 2 stars
Memphis Grizzlies Spread (-6.0) - 1 star
The algorithm has more interest in this game, specifically the Grizzlies' win chances (77.6%, besting their implied odds of 70.6% at their -240 moneyline).
We're also seeing the public agree on which side to back: 55% of the spread bets and 60% of the money is on Memphis to cover.
However, the expected return on the Grizzlies' moneyline is much better at 9.9% (with a high probability of hitting) versus the 3.5% expected return on them to win by more than 6.0.
On that note, of the 72 home teams in the playoffs favored by 6.0 points since 2016, 72.2% won outright, but only 50.0% of them covered (doing so overall by an average of 1.6 points). So, the lean is still Memphis, but the moneyline wins out.
As for the total, our model views this game as 57.7% likely to get to 233-plus points.
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-270) - 5 stars
Phoenix Suns Spread (-6.5) - 3 stars
Over (214.5) - 3 stars
The absence of Devin Booker may not be enough to go away from the Suns in Game 5.
numberFire's model hands Phoenix an 85.9% win probability, giving plenty of value on their moneyline (-270, which is 73.0% implied odds). My model is a little closer at 74.3%, but that's still leading to an expected spread of 8.2 points.
numberFire's projections view this as a 116.5-104.6 game, a gap of 11.9 points.
In the 25 most similar games to this matchup in our database, teams representing the Suns beat teams representing the New Orleans Pelicans at a 76.0% rate and covered in 68.0% of these games.
The total also went over in 60.0% of them, which is partly why our model likes the over tonight. The projected total from our algorithm adds up to 221.1 points.
