NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/21/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Ja Morant Under 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+108)
Ja Morant doesn't shoot many three-balls. He's taken only six over the two games of the series versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, and he hasn't attempted more than four triples in any of his previous eight games.
If Morant is going to make multiple threes tonight, he's either going to have to shoot more treys than he has been or he's going to have to hit a high percentage of the threes he takes -- something he doesn't normally do. For the year, Morant shot only 34.4% from three. He's canned at least two three-pointers just three times in his last eight appearances.
Our model projects the Memphis Grizzlies' star to make 1.4 threes on 4.3 attempts in Game 3. Being able to get the under at a +108 price makes this a very appealing bet.
Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Points (-126)
Rudy Gobert hasn't scored much through two games against the Dallas Mavericks, and that's caused his points prop to drop a little too low.
Heading into Game 3, Gobert has netted a combined 13 points in two games of this series, and he needs at least that many tonight for the over to cash. I think he'll get there.
Despite the low point totals, Gobert is still logging a ton of minutes, playing 35.4 and 37.4 in the two games. He's just had some flukey-low usage, taking one shot in Game 1 and five in Game 2. He hadn't taken as few as five shots in a game in any of his final nine regular-season affairs, and Gobert had dropped in at least 14 points in six straight games heading into the postseason.
And it's not like the Mavs are some brutal matchup for bigs. Over the final 15 regular-season games, Dallas permitted 24.8 points per night to centers, the 12th-most in that span.
We project Gobert -- who averaged 16.7 points per game at home this year, compared to 14.4 on the road -- to post 14.1 points tonight in Game 3.