NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/18/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (+114)
I really like the under on Klay Thompson's made threes tonight.
The Denver Nuggets usually do a good job limiting three-point tries. Over the final 15 games of the regular season, Denver gave up a three-point attempt rate of just 37.0%, the fifth-lowest in the league during that span.
That mark was up to 42.7% in Game 1 against a Golden State Warriors team that isn't shy about bombing treys. Thompson took 10 of those and made 5. But our model expects him to regress a bit in Game 2.
Stephen Curry is likely to get a little more run than the 21 minutes he logged in Game 1, which could siphon some shots away from Klay, and in two meetings with Denver in the regular season, Thompson went 3 for 10 and 2 of 8 from deep.
We project him to make 3.6 triples on 9.5 tries. With the under at +114 and the over priced at -146, the under is the side to roll the dice on.
James Harden Over 7.5 Rebounds (+114)
This is another prop our model likes where you can get good bang for your buck.
Over the last 30 games of the regular season, the Toronto Raptors surrendered 6.6 boards per night to point guards, the eighth-most in the NBA.
James Harden had at least nine rebounds in two of his four games against the Raps this year, although one of those came when he was a member of the Brooklyn Nets. He's also played at least 38 minutes in five straight, including 40 minutes in a Game 1 that was decided by 20 points, so he could see even more run if this game stays close throughout.
Our algorithm projects Harden for 8.0 boards in Game 2. The +114 price on the over makes this a pretty appealing prop to zero in on.