FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 4/18/22

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy basketball is very reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate

Bigs

Despite just three games tonight, we've got no shortage of bigs to want to target.

That starts primarily with Joel Embiid ($11,000), who put up a 19-point, 15-rebound double-double in 37 minutes in Game 1 against the Toronto Raptors. Embiid is rating out 42.1% likely to lead all bigs (centers and power forwards) in FanDuel points tonight, based on my 10,000 slate simulations. Embiid's projected floor (45.2 points) would rank fifth among ceilings for other eligible bigs.

Close by is Nikola Jokic ($11,700), whose salary might make him a better pivot from Embiid tonight. Jokic rates as 44.6% likely to lead bigs in FanDuel points, outperforming Embiid's rate (again 42.1%). This is the top duo by a big margin. Jokic -- as usual -- filled the stat sheet in Game 1 against Golden State with 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists. numberFire's model projects Jokic for a slate-best 56.6 FanDuel points.

I'll bump back up to the mid-range, but if I'm looking at priorities, then we should discuss Precious Achiuwa ($4,300) and to a lesser degree Chris Boucher ($4,500), each of whom should get extra run with Thaddeus Young doubtful. Young played under six minutes in Game 1, allowing Achiuwa to rack up 28.6 and Boucher to play 15.0. Achiuwa rates as 25.2% likely to be the best value (FanDuel points per $1,000 in salary) among all bigs tonight, per my simulations. He's projected for a slate-best 6.59 value rating from numberFire's model.

Kevon Looney ($3,700), Dwight Powell ($4,700), and Maxi Kleber ($3,700) are the value pivots away from the Toronto chalk.

The mid-tier is pretty decent tonight with Rudy Gobert ($7,700), Draymond Green ($6,700), and Pascal Siakam ($9,100) rating out in that order, per my simulations, once accounting for salary. They could be overlooked with the superstars and value available here tonight.

So, the most obvious route is Embiid or Jokic with the value, but we still have ways to differentiate if we want to go that route.

Guards

I'm moving back up to guards next because they stand out more than forwards.

We have a lack of huge salaries with nobody above $9,000 (I consider James Harden a forward due to his small forward eligibility).

So, it's actually looking like either Jalen Brunson ($7,300), Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,000), or Fred VanVleet ($7,600) as the top per-salary-dollar plays.

Brunson was freed up for 40.7 minutes in Game 1 without Luka Doncic (doubtful tonight). In those minutes, he took 24 shots that led to 24 points, and he also racked up 7 boards and 5 assists. Dinwiddie played 36.4 minutes and generated 37.8 FanDuel points on the strength of 15 field goal attempts, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists. Notably, he accrued 16 free throws in the opener of the series.

VanVleet has point-guard-only eligibility but should be set for big minutes again. He played 36.1 in Game 1 and is projected by numberFire for 40.1 tonight.

numberFire's model is keying further Dallas value with Reggie Bullock ($4,400) and with a minimum-salary Raptor: Malachi Flynn ($3,500).

All of this still overlooks a mid-range trio for Golden State that rates out pretty well: Klay Thompson ($6,600), Andrew Wiggins ($5,900), and Jordan Poole ($6,300).

Prioritizing that top trio of Brunson, Dinwiddie, and VanVleet is very appealing for a mix of floor and ceiling, but we'll need to make sure we keep salary for Embiid/Jokic and for someone we've yet to discuss in detail.

Forwards

The reason the guard conversation is more appealing than the forwards is because James Harden stands out so far above the rest. He's 67.0% likely to lead forwards (anyone with small forward eligibility for me) in FanDuel points in my simulations, and he's even 40.8% likely to finish as a top-five value among forwards. That's hard to do at an elevated salary.

No other forward has a salary above $6,500, and the ceiling conversation follows accordingly. Harden's floor projection (36.1) is nearly as high as everyone else's ceiling (I have six forwards with a ceiling between 34.7 and 41.3).

The next place to look, per my sims and numberFire's projections, is more Dallas value with Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,300). Finney-Smith logged 44.1 minutes in Game 1 and racked up 30.5 FanDuel points despite just 7 shot attempts. He scored 14 points and had 5 boards, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 2 blocks. A high ceiling is hard for DFS without scoring output, but he's a safe floor play with the minutes.

Andrew Wiggins ($5,900) and OG Anunoby ($6,100) are rating a cut above the others for me in my model tonight.

Wiggins is projected for 17.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per numberFire, ultimately totaling 31.2 FanDuel points with his other peripherals for a value rating of 5.29.

Anunoby is projected for 31.7 FanDuel points for 5.20 points per $1,000, thanks to a projection that is highlighted by 16.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.1 combined blocks and steals.

Range-of-Outcome Projections

I calculated each player's projected floor (Low) and ceiling (High) (i.e.one standard deviation above and below his fantasy projection) for the slate, based on numberFire's median projections. The position groups are guard (G), forward (F), and big (B) in the table.