NBA Betting Guide for Monday 4/18/22: Sifting Through Game 2s for Value
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
Under (217.0) - 3 stars
Toronto Raptors Spread (+7.0) - 2 stars
Despite this series seeing 242 total points in Game 1, the top play in this game, via numberFire's algorithm, is the under (217.0). This game is rating out as 64.3% likely to stay under that total, per our model.
Since the All-Star break, Raptors games are hitting the under at a 56% rate (by an average of 9.3 points, too). The Philadelphia 76ers' over rate is actually 62.5% despite underperforming the over/under by an average of 5.8 points in those 25 games.
Further, since the break, the 76ers are 28th in offensive tempo, and the Raptors are 25th. A lot sets up well for the under after each side maintained at least a 56.1% effective field goal percentage in the opener.
The slow pace and low scoring expectations also set up well for the Raptors to keep it close. Our model sees Toronto as 60.2% likely to cover.
In the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Raptors have a 64.0% cover rate.
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks Spread (+5.5) - 4 stars
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (+190) - 4 stars
Over (205.5) - 2 stars
With Luka Doncic doubtful, the Mavericks have their hands full again for Monday night's Game 2. Without him in Game 1, the Mavericks fell short by a score of 99-93 to the Utah Jazz.
Neither team surpassed a 47.6% effective field goal percentage, and the Mavericks were stuck at 44.1% in the opener. That doesn't bode well for their offensive expectations, but they still kept it within six points in Game 1.
Our model expects them to keep it even closer tonight. It actually views Dallas as a slight favorite outright (51.4% once factoring in homecourt advantage). ESPN's BPI actually has Dallas' odds at 59.6%, for what it's worth.
Why believe in Dallas without Luka?
In medium-to-very-high-leverage situations since the All-Star break without Doncic, Dallas has maintained a +9.6 net rating over 333 minutes, including their Game 1 loss.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
Under (223.5) - 3 stars
The Golden State Warriors took care of the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of this series. Denver was up 27-26 after the end of the first quarter before being outscored 97-80 after that.
In total, Golden State won three of the four factors, namely besting Denver 62.2% to 52.2% in effective field goal percentage. They also made .256 free throws per field goal attempt -- to .108 for Denver.
The top play is the under (223.5) in this game, per our model. It's 65.6% likely to hit.
Since the break, Warriors games are hitting the under at a 54.2% rate -- by an average of 10.2 points. Denver games are more likely to hit the over (60.9%) but still average 2.8 points shy of the total.
Using my adjusted points data, my model likes the total to be just 218.5.
numberFire's algorithm also places a one-star lean on Denver's spread (+7.0) and moneyline (+245).