3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 4/7/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Nikola Jokic to Triple-Double (+280)
Our projections really like Nikola Jokic in his matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies. We project him to total 28.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 8.5 assists, so we see him flirting with a triple-double.
A points-rebounds double-double is nearly a lock for Jokic. He's done it in six straight games, and he's listed at an eye-popping -800 to double-double. The hurdle will likely be assists. Jokic has just 10 total dimes across the last two games, but before that, he had tallied at least eight assists in four straight -- in line with what our model sees happening tonight.
The game environment should help. The total is 232.5, and the spread is 4.5 points. So, we should get four quarters of The Joker in a high-scoring clash.
Jokic had a triple-double the last time he played Memphis (23-11-12), and with the price at +280, I like taking a shot on him to do it again in this one.
LaMelo Ball Over 20.5 Points (-112)
The Charlotte Hornets are in a smash spot against the Orlando Magic, and LaMelo Ball could soar past his points prop.
The Magic are starting to shut things down for the campaign, and they've been shredded by floor generals of late, giving up 26.6 points per game to the position over the last 15 days -- the second-most in that time.
Ball is seeing good run, logging at least 33 minutes in six of his last seven games, and he should torch the Magic. Our model projects him to score 22.4 points tonight. My biggest worry here is blowout risk; Charlotte is a 13.5-point favorite.
Terry Rozier Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-142)
Sticking with the Hornets, the -142 price on this one isn't a fun number to swallow, but this bet stands out, according to our model.
Orlando has allowed the seventh-highest three-point attempt rate over the last 15 games (43.0%), so Terry Rozier should get plenty of looks from deep. Rozier has taken 10 and 15 three-point tries in his two previous meetings with the Magic this season.
We project him to nail 3.6 triples on 9.5 attempts tonight. If you don't like the bang for your buck at -142, you can use this as a leg to a parlay or as part of a same-game parlay.