NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 4/7/22: 3 Underdogs to Back
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
Boston Celtics Spread (+6.0) - 2 stars
Boston Celtics Moneyline (+200) - 2 stars
This matchup pits the current 2 seed (Boston) and 3 seed (Milwaukee) in the Eastern Conference with the Celtics on the second night of a back-to-back set that saw them pick up a 117-94 win over the Chicago Bulls. That was their first game after a 144-102 win against the Washington Wizards on Sunday.
The Bucks also recently handled the Bulls (127-106) on Tuesday in Chicago, snapping a two-game losing streak.
numberFire's model likes the Bucks to win with a 59.4% probability, leaving plenty of room for the Celtics to cover that 6.0-point spread. Boston is rating out as 61.1% likely to cover. That leads to an expected return of 16.6%.
Boston has covered in 63.2% of their post-All-Star-break games, actually the same rate as Milwaukee. The Celtics have managed to cover in 70% of their 10 road games in that split.
Their 40.6% win probability leads to a 22.0% expected return on their moneyline (+200).
Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors Spread (+1.5) - 3 stars
Toronto Raptors Moneyline (+104) - 3 stars
The Raptors seem destined for the 5 seed in the Eastern Conference but can still move into the 4 or 6 seed depending on how things go. For the Philadelphia 76ers, their most likely outcome is the 3 seed with a range from 2 to 5 overall. This game, then, has implications.
Our model is liking the home Raptors to cover a 1.5-point spread with a 62.7% probability and to win outright 60.0% of the time. Both bets, then, are three-unit suggestions.
Despite just a 6-4 home record since the break, Toronto boasts a +7.2 point differential in that split with an opponent-adjusted split of +5.6.
Over their past 10 total games, I have the Raptors 5th in adjusted point differential (+7.4) with the Sixers 8th (+3.3).
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
Over (240.5) - 2 stars
San Antonio Spurs Spread (+8.5) - 1 star
The top play in this game is on the over (240.5), which is a two-star suggestion (i.e. a two-unit recommendation).
Our model at numberFire likes the Spurs to rack up 118.2 points and the Minnesota Timberwolves to score 125.8 points for a total of 244.0 points. My model likes this one to total 245.1 points, as well.
Additionally, for the super observant, you'll know that our model likes the Spurs to keep this one close. If the header a the top of the blurb slipped past you, you definitely realized that our model is projecting a point differential of 7.6 points in this game.
The Spurs' spread comes with a slight expected return of 2.3%. Via NBA odds, 59% of spread bets and 63% of spread money is coming in on San Antonio, as well.
