3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/6/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Trae Young Double-Double/Hawks Win (-120)
The Atlanta Hawks are in a fantastic spot tonight versus the Washington Wizards, and Trae Young could go nuts.
The Wiz are 24th in defensive rating over the last 15 games. Young is coming off a 26-point, 15-dime game last night in a much tougher matchup against a Toronto Raptors team that sits 2nd in defensive rating in that time. Young has notched a points-assists double-double in four of his previous six games, including the last two.
Young projects for 30.1 points and 10.4 assists, per our model.
The second part of this is the Hawks getting the W. Atlanta is an 8.0-point home favorite, and they're listed at -590 on the moneyline, which implies win odds of 85.5%. I could wind up looking foolish, but I'm more worried about a potential blowout preventing Young from getting double-digit assists than I am Washington winning this game.
This player-performance double is a good way to take advantage of the Hawks being in a smash spot.
Rui Hachimura Under 1.5 Made Threes (-106)
On the flip side of that game, Rui Hachimura has a bad matchup for three-pointers.
Atlanta isn't good overall on D, but they do limit three-point tries, especially of late. Across the last 15 games, the Hawks are surrendering a three-point attempt rate of 36.4%, the fourth-lowest.
While Hachimura has hit exactly three triples in two of his last three games, he's not seeing much volume from deep. The Wizards' forward hasn't taken more than four threes in a game in any of his past six outings. He's an unsustainable 6 of 11 from beyond the arc over the past three.
Our model projects Hachimura right at this line, forecasting him to make 1.5 threes on 3.9 attempts, but I lean toward the under.
Obi Toppin Over 16.5 Points (-110)
The New York Knicks are in a pace-up spot at home versus the Brooklyn Nets, and with Obi Toppin now locked into big minutes, the over on his points prop is pretty appealing in this spot.
Over the last 15 games, the Knicks check in 25th in pace while the Nets are 10th. And this is a Nets team that hasn't been good defensively this season, although they were a respectable 15th in defensive rating in March. In the last 30 games, the Nets are giving up the 10th-most points per night to power forwards (22.3).
Toppin's role has increased with New York playing out the string. He's seen 35 and 30 minutes the last two games, netting 20 points in both while averaging 13 shots per game in that span.
In a game with a juicy 230.0-point total, Toppin projects for 17.4 points, according to our numbers.