NBA Betting Guide for Friday 4/1/22: Navigating a Big Slate
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards Spread (+8.5) - 3 stars
The Dallas Mavericks have clinched a playoff spot. The Wizards? Not so much. They're eliminated from contention.
Despite that, our model likes the Wizards to cover (+8.5) against the Mavericks tonight at home. The odds they do are 62.3%.
Since the All-Star break, the Wizards have covered in 55.6% of their nine home games and have done so by an average of 2.9 points.
They're also in the midst of a homestand, and this game marks their fourth straight at home.
Since the break, too, Dallas' offense has been underperforming relative to implied total (by an average of 3.3 points).
Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies Spread (+7.0) - 3 stars
Over (229.0) - 2 stars
While the Grizzlies are without Ja Morant and list Jaren Jackson Jr. and Tyus Jones as doubtful.
You want to hear something wild? Without those three on the floor and in non-garbage situations, the Grizzlies have a net rating over 163 minutes of +20.7. A lot of that has to do with defensive luck on opponent shooting, but they are matching opponents in shot quality for an against in this split.
Even with some regression baked in, they shouldn't be a full pushover.
The Phoenix Suns are hot. Hotter than...something hot. Nothing is coming to mind here. But along with that, we can bet the over here (229.0).
Our model views the over as 59.5% likely.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-152) - 3 stars
Under (241.0) - 2 stars
Neither the Minnesota Timberwolves nor the Nuggets have a playoff spot clinched, so seeding is crucial here -- especially for Denver.
Our model likes them to make good on that tonight and pick up the win 69.4% of the time. That outperforms their moneyline odds (60.3%) pretty comfortably.
The algorithm also likes the under. In the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, the under is actually 23-2 in those games.
Since the All-Star break, both teams are top-five in effective field goal percentage, overperforming their shot quality rating pretty noticeably. If that begins to regress, we should see unders hit for them.