3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 3/30/22
Player props are a fun way to bet the NBA without having to worry about the zaniness that last-minute injuries can cause in terms of a spread or a game total.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make some cash.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Keldon Johnson Under 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-150)
The Memphis Grizzlies do a great job defending the arc, which has me on the under for Keldon Johnson's made threes prop.
Over the last 15 games, Memphis is allowing a league-low three-point attempt rate of 34.5%. The Grizzles are also number-one in defensive rating over the last five games. It's a rough matchup all around for the San Antonio Spurs.
Johnson has hit more than two triples just once in his past five games. He's played Memphis three times this season and was held to one made trey in two of those games, hitting four in the other. Overall, he's 6 for 22 from deep this year versus the Grizz.
While the -150 number isn't fun, our model really likes the under. We project Johnson to make just 1.9 threes on 5.1 attempts.
O.G. Anunoby Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-146)
The Minnesota Timberwolves sit at the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to three-point defense. Over the last 15 games, Minnesota is permitting a league-high three-point attempt rate of 46.0%, so the Toronto Raptors should get off plenty of threes tonight.
When scanning the Raptors' made threes props, OG Anunoby's jumps out.
Anunoby has made two, three and four triples across his last three games, and our model projects him to can 2.5 threes on 6.8 attempts against the T-Wolves.
You can also peep Fred VanVleet's made threes prop, which is listed at a line of 3.5. We forecast him to drill 3.7 threes on 9.9 tries, and the over is priced at +142.
Darius Garland Under 23.5 Points (-108)
Darius Garland is having a breakout season, and he's been excellent of late. It's scary to take the under on anything Garland-related right now, especially his points prop, as he's netted at least 24 points in five of his last six games.
But a matchup with the Dallas Mavericks has me doing just that.
Over the past five games, Dallas is sixth in defensive rating and is playing at the fifth-slowest pace. The Cleveland Cavaliers are just 21st in pace in that time, so this is going to be a low-possession game -- which is why the total is a meager 214.0 points.
In addition to that, Dallas has been brutally tough on point guards this season. For the year, they're allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to the position (21.6). In the past 15 games, Dallas is surrendering the ninth-fewest points per game to floor generals (22.5).
Cleveland will be sans both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on Wednesday, but with those two off the floor this season, Garland's usage rate increases by only one percentage point, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.
Our projections see a good amount of value on the under as we have Garland scoring only 20.5 points.