NBA Betting Guide for Monday 3/28/22: Starting the Week With Some Underdogs
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks
New York Knicks Moneyline (+184) - 4 stars
New York Knicks Spread (+5.0) - 3 stars
The algorithm at numberFire thinks that the Knicks aren't getting enough respect tonight against the Chicago Bulls.
In the season series, Chicago holds a 2-1 lead, but all three games have been decided by six points or fewer.
The spread tonight is within that range, as New York is a 5.0-point home underdog while playing on a back-to-back after beating the Detroit Pistons 104-102 yesterday on the road.
This season, 5.0-point home underdogs have a 51.7% cover rate (by an average of 2.8 points), and since 2017, the cover rate is 52.7% by an average of 3.0.
According to numberFire's model, the Knicks are 66.3% likely to cover, leading to an expected return of 26.6%.
Their outright win odds, via the algorithm here, actually pit them as the favorite (55.3%).
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat
Over (217.5) - 3 stars
While there is a one-star lean on the Sacramento Kings to cover (+12.5), there's a three-star green-light suggestion on the over (217.5), via numberFire's model, in this matchup. So I'm focusing on that.
In their first season meeting, the Kings won 115-113 for a total of 228 points. In their past 10 games, Kings overs are 7-3, and for the Miami Heat, overs are 6-4.
Notably, the Heat have allowed opponents to go over their implied team total in nine of those games (by an average of 8.6 points).
What's the effect of a large spread on the over/under? Since 2017, games with double-digit home favorites went over at a 54.5% clip by an average of 2.1 points.
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics Spread (+4.0) - 3 stars
Boston Celtics Moneyline (+150) - 2 stars
In a high-profile matchup, numberFire's algorithm likes the Celtics over the Toronto Raptors -- especially once we factor in the betting lines.
Our model likes Boston to win 50.6% of the time, naturally making their spread (+4.0) and positive moneyline (+150) intriguing.
Even with Jayson Tatum and Al Horford questionable and Robert Williams out?
Yes. Without Tatum but in games with Jaylen Brown since the All-Star Break, the Celtics have a non-garbage net rating of +1.2 in 113 minutes.
Without Gary Trent Jr. since the break, that number for the Raptors is just +0.1 in 259 minutes.
Our model views Boston as 62.9% likely to cover.
**Editor's Note: Brown is now out for the Celtics due to a knee issue. This spread has changed to +7.5, but numberFire's model still has a five-star conviction on Boston to cover. **