3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 3/24/22
Player props are a fun way to bet the NBA without having to worry about the zaniness that last-minute injuries can cause in terms of a spread or a game total.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make some cash.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Note: Betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-132)
The Milwaukee Bucks give up plenty of three-point tries, and Kristaps Porzingis' made threes props is a good way to take advantage of that.
Over the last 15 games, the Bucks permit a three-point attempt rate of 42.3%, the sixth-highest. For the year, Milwaukee gives up a three-point attempt rate of 44.9%, the second-highest.
Porzingis has been the key cog in the Washington Wizards' offense, holding a 31.0% usage rate over the last five games, which is 7.4 percentage points higher than anyone else's on Washington.
We project KP to hit 2.2 three-pointers on Thursday.
Zach LaVine Over 26.5 Points (-108)
Zach LaVine is going up against a New Orleans Pelicans D that's been really strong lately, sitting with the second-best defensive rating in the past five contests.
But LaVine gets a huge boost with DeMar DeRozan sitting out. LaVine has a 33.6% usage rate with DeRozan off the floor, and he's going to be the go-to perimeter piece for the Chicago Bulls.
Our algorithm projects LaVine for 27.5 points. He's a good bet to go over his points prop if it stays at this line.
Bobby Portis Over 16.5 Points (-102)
With Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined, there is a ton of usage up for grabs for the Bucks. Bobby Portis should inherit some of it.
Sans Middleton and Giannis this year, Portis has a solid 25.6% usage rate, which is up 4.0 percentage points from his season-long mark, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.
The matchup is a nice one. Across the last five games, Washington is just 25th in defensive rating while playing at a league-average pace.
Our numbers really like Portis tonight as we project him to score 20.4 points -- well over this line.