NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 3/22/22: A Quick Look at All 4 Games

Can we bet all four games tonight, or are some just spots to avoid? See what our model thinks.

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic

Over (215.0) - 3 stars
Golden State Warriors Moneyline (-330) - 3 stars

There's a lot of adjusting we have to do in this game, as the Warriors are without Stephen Curry. Since the trade deadline, the Warriors -- without Curry on the floor but in games with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green -- have a non-garbage net rating of -1.7 and a 6-7 record.

The Orlando Magic, without Jalen Suggs, have a net rating of -8.6 since the deadline.

Combining that, my model views the spread as 7.1 points for the Warriors, so I'm not in on the spread, though numberFire's model likes Golden State -7.5 as a two-star play.

It prefers Golden State's moneyline (-330) as a three-star play and considers Golden State to be 82.9% likely to win.

Where the most alignment is is on the over (215.0). numberFire's model is anticipating a final score of 116.1 to 105.7 for a total of 221.8. My model likes a total of 223.1.

Golden State's offensive rating without Curry in the sample I'm using is still 115.3.

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks

New York Knicks (+3.5) - 4 stars
New York Knicks Moneyline (+134) - 3 stars

There's a lot of green around the Knicks to win and cover tonight. numberFire's model views those as 63.2% and 58.6% likely to occur, respectively.

This is despite not having Julius Randle.

Adjusting for injuries, my model views the line as efficient and shares in the under sentiment (226.5), which numberFire's model likes as a two-star play.

So the under is my favorite bet here, but I can see the case for Knicks +3.5, which is the best bet of the night, according to numberFire's model.

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-300) - 4 stars
Over (233.0) - 3 stars

The model is big into the Milwaukee Bucks, who list Giannis Antetokounmpo as probable and Khris Middleton as out. Accounting for that since the deadline, the Bucks have a +0.7 net rating in non-garbage situations -- and a 121.1 offensive rating.

The Chicago Bulls, without Lonzo Ball, are at a -1.1 net rating and a 113.3 offensive rating.

Notably, teams representing the Bucks are 20-5 outright across the 25 most similar games to this one in numberFire's historical database. They're also 17-8 against the spread, and that'll do a lot to drive the star ratings.

Once more, where I see the more obvious agreement with numberFire's model and mine is on the over. I noted the great offensive ratings for each team in some relevant, recent splits. My model likes this game to score close to 240 points.

Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets

Under (222.5) - 1 star
Los Angeles Clippers (+7.0) - 1 star

This game features the weakest value of all, and that's okay. We don't need to bet every game.

That said, there are one-star leans on the Clippers' spread and the under.

Though teams representing the Clippers are just 8-17 outright across the 25 historical comps to this matchup, they're 16-8-1 against the spread.

Denver has a weak 38.9% home cover rate this season, as well.

The under is also 21-3-1 in the 25 games most like this one since 2000. Road Clippers games have a 40.5% over rate this season, and the Nuggets have surpassed their own implied total at a 44.1% rate at home.